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Inflation, the credit market, and economic growth

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  • Niloy Bose

Abstract

This paper presents a model which predicts a negative, non-linear relationship between the rate of inflation and rate of output growth, as observed in many empirical studies. The model describes an economy in which credit market imperfections arise due to asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. Within this environment, two types of lending regime are possible--a rationing regime, where high and low risk borrowers are separated by means of credit rationing, and a screening regime, where separation takes place through costly information acquisition. An increase in the inflation rate alters lenders' behaviour in such a way (by increasing the incidence of rationing or the level of costly screening, or by switching the lending regime from screening to rationing) that adverse growth effect of inflation is magnified. The analysis provides a basis for the empirical finding that growth effect of inflation may be strongest in some specific range of inflation. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Niloy Bose, 2002. "Inflation, the credit market, and economic growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 412-434, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:54:y:2002:i:3:p:412-434
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    Cited by:

    1. Kontogiannis, Nikolaos & Litina, Anastasia & Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2019. "Occupation-induced status, social norms, and economic growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 348-360.
    2. Mu-Shun Wang, 2013. "An Investigation of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economies," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages 424-443, December.
    3. Ashagrie Demile, 2016. "Inflation Growth nexus in Ethiopia Evidence from Threshold Auto Regressive Model," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 24(1), April.
    4. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    5. Fu-Sheng Hung, 2009. "Explaining the nonlinear effects of financial development on economic growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 41-65, May.
    6. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2017. "Entrepreneurial Status, Social Norms, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics 17/05, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    7. Peter Kehinde, Mogaji, 2010. "Fisher Effect and the Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kandil, Magda, 2005. "Money, interest, and prices: Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 129-147.
    9. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    10. Robert Amano & Tom Carter & Kevin Moran, 2012. "Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-20, CIRANO.
    11. Mu-Shun Wang, 2013. "An Investigation of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economies," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages /, December.
    12. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2011. "Nonlinearity in the financial developmentâincome inequality nexus," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 310-325, September.
    13. Shu-Hua Chen, 2015. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Transactions-Based Endogenous Growth Model with Imperfect Competition," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 89-111, March.
    14. Hiroki Arato, 2009. "Long-run relationship between inflation and growth in a New Keynesian framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1863-1872.
    15. Idil Uz Akdogan, 2020. "The effects of macroprudential policies on managing capital flows," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 583-603, February.
    16. Ariyanto, Anto, 2017. "CRITICAL REVIEW : Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Jangka Panjang : Sebuah Teori Baru Keynesian dan Bukti semiparametrik Lanjut," INA-Rxiv 5ydqg, Center for Open Science.
    17. Phiri, Andrew, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Econometric Approach," MPRA Paper 52093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2023. "Income inequality, inflation and financial development," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 468-487.
    19. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2010. "Inflation and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 229-236, January.
    21. Chien-Chiang Lee & Swee Yoong Wong, 2005. "Inflationary Threshold Effects In The Relationship Between Financial Development And Economic Growth: Evidence From Taiwan And Japan," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 49-69, June.
    22. Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2018. "Inflation rate of 14–16% is fair for the sub-Saharan African dollarization," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(4), pages 779-794, October.
    23. Shu‐Hua Chen, 2018. "The Credit‐Channel Transmission Mechanism And The Nonlinear Growth And Welfare Effects Of Inflation And Taxes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 724-744, April.

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