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Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Economic Output

Author

Listed:
  • Steve Miller
  • Kenn Chua
  • Jay Coggins
  • Hamid Mohtadi

Abstract

Climate change is likely to affect economies not only through warming, but also via an increase in prolonged extreme events like heat waves. However, the impacts of heat waves on economic output are not well captured by standard empirical approaches that ignore when hot days occur. Using a global dataset spanning 1979–2016, we show agricultural losses from past heat waves are up to an order of magnitude larger than suggested by standard approaches. Combining these estimates with a suite of climate models implies that by the end of the century, climate damages in agriculture may be 5–10 times larger than is predicted by a focus on mean temperature shifts alone. These findings have important implications for targeting and evaluating climate adaptation efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Miller & Kenn Chua & Jay Coggins & Hamid Mohtadi, 2021. "Heat Waves, Climate Change, and Economic Output," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2658-2694.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:19:y:2021:i:5:p:2658-2694.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvab009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ar'anzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela & Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2022. "Economic activity and climate change," Papers 2206.03187, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    2. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Nguyen, Toan Truong, 2022. "Climate Change, Cold Waves, Heat Waves, and Mortality: Evidence from a Lower Middle-Income Country," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1034, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Jarrett, Uchechukwu & Miller, Steve & Mohtadi, Hamid, 2023. "Dry spells and global crop production: A multi-stressor and multi-timescale analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    5. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2022. "Climate, Technology, Family Size; on the Crossroad between Two Ultimate Externalities," Other publications TiSEM b6d5b02f-4624-46fd-836a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2023. "Climate, technology, family size; on the crossroad between two ultimate externalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Cuong Viet Nguyen & Manh‐Hung Nguyen & Toan Truong Nguyen, 2023. "The impact of cold waves and heat waves on mortality: Evidence from a lower middle‐income country," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1220-1243, June.
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Thinh, Bui Tien, 2023. "Green development, climate risks, and cash flow: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and the Timing of Work," CESifo Working Paper Series 10681, CESifo.
    10. Antonio Accetturo & Matteo Alpino, 2023. "Climate change and Italian agriculture: evidence from weather shocks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 756, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2022. "Climate, Technology, Family Size; on the Crossroad between Two Ultimate Externalities," Discussion Paper 2022-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Charlotte Fabri & Michele Moretti & Steven Van Passel, 2022. "On the (ir)relevance of heatwaves in climate change impacts on European agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-20, September.
    13. Preety Srivastava & Trong-Anh Trinh & Xiaohui Zhang, 2022. "Weather effects on academic performance: An analysis using administrative data," Discussion Papers 2207, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    14. Xupu Li & Shuangshuang Li & Yufeng Zhang & Patrick J. O’Connor & Liwei Zhang & Junping Yan, 2021. "Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment under Multiple Indicators," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.

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