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Agricultural bankers’ farmland price expectations

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  • Todd H Kuethe
  • David Oppedahl

Abstract

Previous studies provide conflicting evidence on the degree to which Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural bankers provide useful information on the future direction of farm real estate values. We use unbalanced panel of responses from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey between 1993Q1 and 2019Q2 to empirically test adaptive, rational and extrapolative expectations. We find that respondents extrapolate recent farmland price experiences but are overly cautious, as observed farmland price changes tend to be greater than expected. This is the first study of individual farmland price expectations collected by Federal Reserve surveys of agricultural bankers.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd H Kuethe & David Oppedahl, 2021. "Agricultural bankers’ farmland price expectations," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(1), pages 42-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:48:y:2021:i:1:p:42-59.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbaa017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Information Rigidities and Farmland Value Expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 202306131414240000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Fiechter, Chad M. & Kuethe, Todd H. & Zhang, Wendong, 2022. "Information Rigidities in Farmland Value Expectations," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322070, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Fiechter, Chad M., 2023. "Farmland Value Expectations and Learning," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335505, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd, 2021. "Agricultural Lenders and Farmland Appraisers Disagreement on Farmland Value Expectations," 2021 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (Virtual Meeting), October 6-7, 2021 316031, Regional Research Committee NC-1177 (formerly NC-1014): Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    5. Burnett, J. Wesley & Lacombe, Donald J. & Wallander, Steven, . "Spatial and Temporal Spillovers in US Cropland Values," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 49(1).
    6. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    7. Chad Fiechter & Todd Kuethe & David B. Oppedahl, 2021. "Perceived Competition in Agricultural Lending: Stylized Facts and an Agenda for Future Research," Working Paper Series WP-2021-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    farmland prices; survey expectations;

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