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International Evidence on Friedman's Theory of the Business Cycle

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  • Goodwin, Thomas H
  • Sweeney, Richard J
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    Abstract

    Milton Friedman's theory of the business cycle implies two empirical regularities tested for here. One regularity i s that business cycles are asymmetric: the size of a contraction affec ts the size of the following expansion but not vice versa. The second regularity is that a supply-side ceiling to aggregate output limits the size of expansions. Friedman's correlation methods yield only very w eak support for the asymmetry hypothesis when applied to real GNP data o f eight OECD countries. A time-series model with a ceiling component f its the data well for a majority of the countries. Copyright 1993 by Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

    Volume (Year): 31 (1993)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 178-93

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:31:y:1993:i:2:p:178-93

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    Cited by:
    1. Rodriguez Gabriel, 2007. "Application of Three Alternative Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru," Working Papers 2007-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Hess, Gregory D. & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Asymmetric persistence in GDP? A deeper look at depth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 535-554, December.
    3. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    4. Randal J. Verbrugge, 1998. "A cross-country investigation of macroeconomic asymmetries," Macroeconomics 9809017, EconWPA, revised 30 Sep 1998.
    5. Tinsley, P A & Krieger, Reva, 1997. "Asymmetric Adjustments of Price and Output," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 631-52, July.
    6. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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