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Econometric Modelling in the Presence of Evolutionary Change

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  • Foster, John
  • Wild, Phillip

Abstract

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self-organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods. An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and decline of Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of this example, it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Foster, John & Wild, Phillip, 1999. "Econometric Modelling in the Presence of Evolutionary Change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 23(6), pages 749-770, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:23:y:1999:i:6:p:749-70
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Witt & Thomas Brenner, 2008. "Output dynamics, flow equilibria and structural change—A prolegomenon to evolutionary macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 249-260, April.
    2. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2013. "The dynamics of national innovation systems: A panel cointegration analysis of the coevolution between innovative capability and absorptive capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 579-594.
    3. John Foster, 2016. "The Australian growth miracle: an evolutionary macroeconomic explanation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(3), pages 871-894.
    4. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Donato Masciandaro & Raffaella Barone, 2023. "Environmental Crime Revenues, Corruption And Money Laundering: The Role Of The Real-Estate," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23211, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    6. Brendan Markey-Towler, 2021. "Psychology of evolutionary economic behaviour," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 361-383, September.
    7. John Foster, 2015. "Energy, Knowledge and Economic Growth," Economic Complexity and Evolution, in: Andreas Pyka & John Foster (ed.), The Evolution of Economic and Innovation Systems, edition 127, pages 9-39, Springer.
    8. Foster, John & Metcalfe, J. Stan, 2012. "Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 420-432.
    9. Raffaella Barone & Donato Masciandaro & Friedrich Schneider, 2022. "Corruption and money laundering: You scratch my back, i’ll scratch yours," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 318-342, February.
    10. Foster, John, 2021. "In search of a suitable heuristic for evolutionary economics: from generalized Darwinism to economic self-organisation," MPRA Paper 106146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Koen Frenken, 2006. "Technological innovation and complexity theory," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 137-155.
    12. John Foster, 2005. "From simplistic to complex systems in economics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(6), pages 873-892, November.
    13. Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John & Wild, Phillip, 2006. "Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 136-150, March.
    14. John Foster & Jason Potts, 2009. "A micro-meso-macro perspective on the methodology of evolutionary economics: Integrating history, simulation and econometrics," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Lionel Nesta (ed.), Schumpeterian Perspectives on Innovation, Competition and Growth, pages 53-68, Springer.
    15. Foster, John, 1997. "The analytical foundations of evolutionary economics: From biological analogy to economic self-organization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 427-451, October.
    16. J.S. Metcalfe, 2005. "Ed Mansfield and the Diffusion of Innovation: An Evolutionary Connection," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 30(2_2), pages 171-181, January.
    17. John Foster, 2017. "Prior Commitment and Uncertainty in Complex Economic Systems: Reinstating History in the Core of Economic Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 392-418, September.

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