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Econometric Modelling in the Presence of Evolutionary Change

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Author Info

  • Foster, John
  • Wild, Phillip

Abstract

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self-organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods. An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and decline of Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of this example, it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Cambridge Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 749-70

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Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:23:y:1999:i:6:p:749-70

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Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
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Web page: http://www.cje.oupjournals.org/

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Foster, John & Metcalfe, J. Stan, 2012. "Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 420-432.
  2. Ulrich Witt & Thomas Brenner, 2008. "Output dynamics, flow equilibria and structural change—A prolegomenon to evolutionary macroeconomics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 249-260, April.
  3. Fulvio, Castellacci & Jose Miguel, Natera, 2011. "The dynamics of national innovation systems: a panel cointegration analysis of the coevolution between innovative capability and absorptive capacity," MPRA Paper 31583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. John Foster, 2013. "Energy, Knowledge and Economic Growth," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 3-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  5. Koen Frenken, 2006. "Technological innovation and complexity theory," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 137-155.
  6. John Foster, 2014. "The Australian growth miracle: An evolutionary macroeconomic explanation," Discussion Papers Series 521, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  7. Prof John Foster, 2004. "From Simplistic to Complex Systems in Economics," Discussion Papers Series 335, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  8. Ulrich Witt & Thomas Brenner, 2007. "Output Dynamics, Flow Equilibria and Structural Change – A Prolegomenon to Evolutionary Macroeconomics," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-12, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group.
  9. J.S. Metcalfe, 2005. "Ed Mansfield and the Diffusion of Innovation: An Evolutionary Connection," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 30(2_2), pages 171-181, 01.
  10. Prof John Foster, 2007. "A micro-meso-macro perspective on the methodology of evolutionary economics: integrating history, simulation and econometrics," Discussion Papers Series 343, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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