IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbmp/y2014i2b2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Projections by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank: Methods and Motives

Author

Listed:
  • Doris Prammer

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Lukas Reiss

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

Abstract

The financial and economic crisis and recent reforms in economic governance have increased the importance of fiscal projections both inside and outside central banks. The OeNB fiscal projection model is driven by external demand, by considerations of the comparability of subcomponents with cash data (or other administrative information), and by the difference between the driving factors of expenditure and revenue categories. The accuracy of ESCB central banks’ fiscal projections is limited by prudency requirements as well as the no-policy change assumption (in the medium run) and by one-off events and a lack of information on smaller entities (in the short run).

Suggested Citation

  • Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2014. "Fiscal Projections by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank: Methods and Motives," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 31-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2014:i:2:b:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:1a3feded-2fb2-4081-9058-7d48153a4d3b/mop_2014_q2_analyse2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    2. Kremer, Jana & Rodrigues Braz, Cláudia & Brosens, Teunis & Langenus, Geert & Momigliano, Sandro & Spolander, Mikko, 2006. "A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances," Working Paper Series 579, European Central Bank.
    3. Larch, Martin & Turrini, Alessandro, 2009. "The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance in EU Fiscal Policymaking. Love at First Sight Turned into a Mature Relationship," MPRA Paper 20594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Markus Leibrecht & Martin Schneider, 2006. "AQM-06: The Macro economic Model of the OeNB," Working Papers 132, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Johannes Holler & Lukas Reiss, 2011. "What to Expect from the Latest Reform of the Stability and Growth Pact," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 85-98.
    6. Gilles Mourre & George-Marian Isbasoiu & Dario Paternoster & Matteo Salto, 2013. "The cyclically-adjusted budget balance used in the EU fiscal framework: an update," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 478, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. European Commission, 2009. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2009 edition," Taxation trends 2009, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    8. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    9. Christian Ragacs & Klaus Vondra, 2014. "Moderate Upswing amid High Uncertainty – Economic Outlook for Austria from 2014 to 2016 (June 2014)," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 6-30.
    10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:132:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Bernhard Grossmann & Doris Prammer, 2005. "A Disaggregated Approach to Analyzing Public Finances in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 61-75.
    12. European Commission, 2011. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2011 edition," Taxation trends 2011, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2015. "Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Aggregates in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 27-41.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Klaus Vondra, 2013. "Austria Withstands Recession: Return to Positive Growth in Early 2013," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 6-11.
    2. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
    4. Rother, Philipp & Cugnasca, Alessandro, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers during consolidation: evidence from the European Union," Working Paper Series 1863, European Central Bank.
    5. European Commission, 2010. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2010 edition," Taxation trends 2010, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    6. Leon Bettendorf & Duncan van Limbergen, 2013. "The stability of tax elasticities in The Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 256.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Bauer, Thomas K. & Gebhardt, Heinz & Matz, Florian & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Siemers, Lars-H., 2010. "Ermittlung der Konjunkturkomponenten für die Länderhaushalte zur Umsetzung der in der Föderalismuskommission II vereinbarten Verschuldungsbegrenzung: Endbericht - Juni 2010," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69915.
    8. European Commission, 2012. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2012 edition," Taxation trends 2012, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    9. Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008. "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(4), pages 459-479.
    10. Morris, Richard & Reiss, Lukas, 2020. "A decomposition of structural revenue developments for euro area member states," Working Paper Series 2455, European Central Bank.
    11. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2016. "Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(60), pages 5866-5881, December.
    12. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Luca Agnello & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Discretionary Fiscal Policies over the Cycle: New Evidence Based on the ESCB Disaggregated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 43-85, June.
    14. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 2011/270, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Koester, Gerrit & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2017. "Revenue elasticities in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1989, European Central Bank.
    16. Gilles Mourre & Aurélien Poissonnier, 2019. "What Drives the Responsiveness of the Budget Balance to the Business Cycle in EU Countries?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 237-249, July.
    17. Orsola Costantini, 2015. "The Cyclically Adjusted Budget: History and Exegesis of a Fateful Estimate," Working Papers Series 24, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    18. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    19. António Afonso, & Jorge Caiado, & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2015. "The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)," Working Papers Department of Economics 2015/06, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal projections; tax elasticities; projection errors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2014:i:2:b:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rita Glaser-Schwarz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.