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Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania

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  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

This paper quantifies the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator. The analysis is motivated by the systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past. Both methods confirm that tax elasticities moved with the cycle, which can be attributed to the procyclical tax compliance tendencies and structural composition effects across tax bases. Comparison of VAT revenue gaps across Baltic countries during the recent recovery suggests that tax revenues rebounded fastest in Estonia, followed by Lithuania and Latvia. Overall, the results of the study emphasize the importance of accounting for cyclical variation in tax elasticities when making short-term tax revenue projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2011. "Assessing the Variability of Tax Elasticities in Lithuania," IMF Working Papers 2011/270, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/270
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, vol. 1, pages 25-55, January.
    4. Vincent Belinga & Ms. Dora Benedek & Ruud A. de Mooij & Mr. John Norregaard, 2014. "Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/110, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Maria Th. Kasselaki & Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 147, pages 53-106.
    6. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "The determinants of vat revenue efficiency: recent evidence from Greece," Working Papers 181, Bank of Greece.
    7. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Assessing the variability of indirect tax elasticity in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2098-2109.
    8. Lagravinese, Raffaele & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Tax buoyancy in OECD countries: New empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Francesco Berardini & Fabrizio Renzi, 2022. "Mind the Gap! The (unexpected) impact of COVID-19 pandemic on VAT revenue in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 669, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Is there any evidence of VAT related buoyancy effects in Greece?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1762-1775.
    11. Zhou, Shuya & Zhou, Peiyan & Ji, Hannah, 2022. "Can digital transformation alleviate corporate tax stickiness: The mediation effect of tax avoidance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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