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Portfolio Substitution and the Revenue Cost of the Federal Income Tax Exemption for State and Local Government Bonds

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  • Poterba, James M.
  • Verdugo, Arturo Ramírez

Abstract

This paper illustrates how different assumptions about household portfolio behavior influence estimates of the amount of individual income tax revenue that would be collected if the interest tax exemption for state and local government bonds were repealed or curtailed. Using data from the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances, we estimate that federal income tax revenues would rise by $14.0 billion if current bondholders purchased taxable bonds, $8.9 billion if corporate stock replaced tax-exempt bonds in household portfolios, and $8.2 billion if they distributed their tax-exempt bond holdings across their other portfolio assets in proportion to their current portfolio shares.

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  • Poterba, James M. & Verdugo, Arturo Ramírez, 2011. "Portfolio Substitution and the Revenue Cost of the Federal Income Tax Exemption for State and Local Government Bonds," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 64(2), pages 591-613, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:64:y:2011:i:2:p:591-613
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2011.2S.07
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sauter, Nicolas & Walliser, Jan & Winter, Joachim, 2015. "Tax incentives, bequest motives, and the demand for life insurance: evidence from a natural experiment in Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 525-553, October.
    3. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    4. Gao Liu & Dwight V. Denison, 2014. "Indirect and Direct Subsidies for the Cost of Government Capital: Comparing Tax-Exempt Bonds and Build America Bonds," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(3), pages 569-594, September.
    5. Thomas Luke Spreen & Ed Gerrish, 2022. "Taxes and tax‐exempt bonds: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, September.
    6. Austin J. Drukker & Ted Gayer & Harvey S. Rosen, 2017. "The Mortgage Interest Deduction: Revenue and Distributional Effects," Working Papers 251, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    7. Deborah Lucas & Jorge Jimenez Montesinos, 2020. "A Fair Value Approach to Valuing Public Infrastructure Projects and the Risk Transfer in Public-Private Partnerships," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 369-402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2013. "Funding Soft Liabilities," NBER Chapters, in: State and Local Health Plans for Active and Retired Public Employees, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Hatfield, John William, 2013. "Revenue Decentralization, the Local Income Tax Deduction, and the Provision of Public Goods," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(1), pages 97-115, March.

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