IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nos/wjflnh/2016_4_01e.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimization of the Russian Macroeconomic Policy for 2016–2020

Author

Listed:
  • Gilmundinov V. M.

    (Новосибирский государственный университет)

  • Melnikov V. V.
  • Petrov S. P.

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the methodological issues of economic policy elaboration and optimization of economic policy instruments’ parameters. Actuality of this research is provided by growing complexity of social and economic systems, important state role in their functioning as well as multi-targets of economic policy with limited number of instruments. Considering a big variety of internal and external restrictions of social and economic development of modern Russia it has wide range of applications. Extension of the dynamic econometric general equilibrium input-output model of the Russian economy with development of the sub-model of economic policy optimization is a key purpose of this study. The sub-model of economic policy optimization allows estimating impact of economic policy measures on target indicators as well as defining optimal values of their parameters. For this purpose, we extend Robert Mundell’s approach by considering dynamic optimization and wider range of economic policy targets and measures. Use of general equilibrium input-output model allows considering impact of economic policy on different aggregate markets and sectors. Approbation of suggested approach allows us to develop multi-variant forecast for the Russian economy for 2016–2020, define optimal values of monetary policy parameters and compare considered variants by values of social losses. The obtained results could be further used in theoretical as well as applied researches concerned with issues of economic policy elaboration and forecasting of social and economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilmundinov V. M. & Melnikov V. V. & Petrov S. P., 2016. "Optimization of the Russian Macroeconomic Policy for 2016–2020," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(4), pages 5-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:nos:wjflnh:2016_4_01e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nsu.ru/rs/mw/link/Media:/57474/01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Mundell, 1960. "The Monetary Dynamics of International Adjustment under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 74(2), pages 227-257.
    2. Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
    3. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 619-631, July.
    4. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 230-231, January.
    5. Anonymous, 1962. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 876-878, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Carlos de Pablo, 2004. "La Economía como proceso decisorio. Mi versión," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 267, Universidad del CEMA.
    2. Gilmundinov, Vadim & Bozo, Natalia & Melnikov, Vladimir & Petrov, Sergei, 2016. "Modification of the GE-IO model of the Russian economy with dynamic optimization of macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 75597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1980. "Imperfect asset substitutability and monetary policy under fixed exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 177-200, May.
    4. Jimmy W. Wheeler, 1972. "Domestic Policy and International Exchange Rate Movements, A Review," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 16(2), pages 123-128, October.
    5. Robert Prasch, 2001. "The Economic Contributions of Robert A. Mundell," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 41-58.
    6. Mădălin Viziniuc, 2017. "Potential Gains from Cooperation Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: The Case of an Emerging Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 420-452, September.
    7. Michael Michaely, 1971. "An Over-all View of Policy Patterns," NBER Chapters, in: The Responsiveness of Demand Policies to Balance of Payments: Postwar Patterns, pages 30-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Svitlana Galeshchuk, 2017. "Technological bias at the exchange rate market," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2-3), pages 80-86, April.
    9. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 2007. "A structuralist model of the small open economy in the short, medium and long run," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-254, June.
    10. Charles van Marrewijk, 2005. "Basic Exchange Rate Theories," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-024/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Mr. James M. Boughton, 2002. "On the Origins of the Fleming-Mundell Model," IMF Working Papers 2002/107, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2018. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 802-827, August.
    13. José Luís Oreiro, 2006. "Capital mobility, real exchange rate appreciation, and asset price bubbles in emerging economies: a Post Keynesian macroeconomic model for a small open economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 317-344, January.
    14. Kevin Gallagher, 2012. "The Myth of Financial Protectionism: The New (and old) Economics of Capital Controls," Working Papers wp278, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    15. Martin F. J. Prachoway, 1972. "Direct Investment and the Balance of Payments of the United States: A Portfolio Approach," NBER Chapters, in: International Mobility and Movement of Capital, pages 443-464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    17. Phillip Edmund Metaxas & Ernst Juerg Weber, 2016. "An Australian Contribution to International Trade Theory: The Dependent Economy Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 464-497, September.
    18. Colin Ellis & Emilia Gyoerk, 2019. "Investigating the Economic and Financial Damage around Currency Peg Failures," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, May.
    19. Ricard Esparza-Masana, 2022. "Towards Smart Specialisation 2.0. Main Challenges When Updating Strategies," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 635-655, March.
    20. Denis Beau & Christophe Cahn & Laurent Clerc & Benoît Mojon, 2014. "Macro-Prudential Policy and the Conduct of Monetary Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.),Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 9, pages 273-314, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy; forecast; general equilibrium; inflation; input-output; monetary policy; optimization; simulation; targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nos:wjflnh:2016_4_01e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Вестник НГУ социально-экономические науки (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://socionet.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.