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Long-term growth sources for sectors of Russian economy

Author

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  • Ivashchenko, S.

    (The Institute of Regional Economy Problems (Russian Academy of Sciences), Saint Petersburg, Russia
    Financial Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
    Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia)

Abstract

Theoretical models suggest stationary structure of sectors. Sometimes this suggestion is hidden (balanced growth). The ratio of variables for 2 sectors is unit root at the most cases (for 14 Russian sectors and 6 variables per sector). The lowest share of stationary ratios is 5/91 for real value added with ADF test (KPSS test for the same variable leads to 38/91 stationary ratios). The cointegration rank differs across sectors in wide ranges (from 1 for trade (G) or government administration (L) till 5 for agriculture (AB)). The dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium (DSPE) model is created. It is model of firms in DSGE-style and description of the rest economy by exogenous rules. The model is estimated for each of 14 sectors. The model includes 5 sources of stochastic trends: TFP; labor supply; investments efficiency; investments prices; prices of intermediate goods. Any 2 sectors significantly differ by key parameters (production function shares, capital depreciation, and demand elasticity). The drift of unit root sources differs across sectors (including sign). Only few pairs of sectors differ insignificantly (3/182 or 8/91 depending on test specification). The variance decomposition of trends (for various variables) is computed. It varies in wide ranges across sectors and variables. Thus, usage of aggregate data in theoretical model leads to loose of large amount of information.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivashchenko, S., 2020. "Long-term growth sources for sectors of Russian economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 86-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2020:i:48:p:86-112
    DOI: 10.31737/2221-2264-2020-48-4-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic trend; unit root; industry; sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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