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Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

Author

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  • Simon Cauchemez

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK)

  • Alain-Jacques Valleron

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    INSERM, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    AP-HP, Hôpital St Antoine, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France)

  • Pierre-Yves Boëlle

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    INSERM, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    AP-HP, Hôpital St Antoine, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France)

  • Antoine Flahault

    (Université Pierre et Marie Curie—Paris 6, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    INSERM, UMR S 707, 27 rue Chaligny, Paris 75012, France
    French School of Public Health (EHESP), 1 place du Parvis Notre-Dame, Paris F-75004, France)

  • Neil M. Ferguson

    (MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK)

Abstract

Schools out for influenza One option open to public health authorities facing the prospect of an influenza pandemic is the closure of all the schools. A dramatic gesture, but would it help? There is a shortage of reliable data on the matter, but the Sentinel network, linking over a thousand general practitioners across France, provides a resource that can tackle the question by comparing a 21-year record of daily reported cases of flu-like disease with the dates of school vacations — the timing of which is staggered across France minimizing the impact of seasonal factors. The answer is yes, there is a reduction, of about 20%, in rates of flu transmission to children. This translates into a predicted reduction of about 15% in the overall number of cases if schools were closed during a pandemic, sufficient to reduce stress on the healthcare system, but not to stop the disease in its tracks.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Cauchemez & Alain-Jacques Valleron & Pierre-Yves Boëlle & Antoine Flahault & Neil M. Ferguson, 2008. "Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data," Nature, Nature, vol. 452(7188), pages 750-754, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:452:y:2008:i:7188:d:10.1038_nature06732
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06732
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    1. Georgios Marinos & Dimitrios Lamprinos & Panagiotis Georgakopoulos & Evangelos Oikonomou & Georgios Zoumpoulis & Nikolaos Garmpis & Anna Garmpi & Eirini Tzalavara & Gerasimos Siasos & Georgios Rachiot, 2022. "Evaluation of Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices Related to Self-Testing Procedure against COVID-19 among Greek Students: A Pilot Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-11, April.
    2. Shoko Kawano & Masayuki Kakehashi, 2015. "Substantial Impact of School Closure on the Transmission Dynamics during the Pandemic Flu H1N1-2009 in Oita, Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Eiji Yamamura & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2021. "Changing views about remote working during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence using panel data from Japan," Papers 2101.08480, arXiv.org.
    4. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    5. Saki Saito & Mariko I. Ito & Takaaki Ohnishi, 2022. "Fluctuations in the Number of Stores by Industry During the COVID-19 Pandemic Based on Japanese Phone Book Entries," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 545-557, October.
    6. Rakowski, Franciszek & Gruziel, Magdalena & Bieniasz-Krzywiec, Łukasz & Radomski, Jan P., 2010. "Influenza epidemic spread simulation for Poland — a large scale, individual based model study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3149-3165.
    7. Hongjiang Gao & Karen K Wong & Yenlik Zheteyeva & Jianrong Shi & Amra Uzicanin & Jeanette J Rainey, 2015. "Comparing Observed with Predicted Weekly Influenza-Like Illness Rates during the Winter Holiday Break, United States, 2004-2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Han, Lili & Song, Sha & Pan, Qiuhui & He, Mingfeng, 2023. "The impact of multiple population-wide testing and social distancing on the transmission of an infectious disease," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    9. Casey B. Mulligan, 2021. "The incidence and magnitude of the health costs of in-person schooling during the COVID-19 pandemic," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 303-332, September.
    10. T Déirdre Hollingsworth & Don Klinkenberg & Hans Heesterbeek & Roy M Anderson, 2011. "Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza A: Balancing Conflicting Policy Objectives," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-11, February.
    11. Ozgur Araz & Alison Galvani & Lauren Meyers, 2012. "Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 175-187, September.
    12. Joe Hilton & Matt J Keeling, 2020. "Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-10, July.
    13. Eiji Yamamura & Yoshiro Tsustsui, 2021. "The impact of closing schools on working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence using panel data from Japan," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 41-60, March.
    14. Kozhaya, Mireille, 2022. "The double burden: The impact of school closures on labor force participation of mothers," Ruhr Economic Papers 956, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Ross, J.V. & Pagendam, D.E. & Pollett, P.K., 2009. "On parameter estimation in population models II: Multi-dimensional processes and transient dynamics," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 123-132.
    16. Elena Raffetti & Giuliano Di Baldassarre, 2022. "Do the Benefits of School Closure Outweigh Its Costs?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(5), pages 1-8, February.
    17. Toshihiko Matsuoka & Tomoki Sato & Tomoyuki Akita & Jiturou Yanagida & Hiroki Ohge & Masao Kuwabara & Junko Tanaka, 2016. "High Vaccination Coverage among Children during Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 as a Potential Factor of Herd Immunity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Judith Legrand & Joseph R Egan & Ian M Hall & Simon Cauchemez & Steve Leach & Neil M Ferguson, 2009. "Estimating the Location and Spatial Extent of a Covert Anthrax Release," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, April.
    19. Barrio, Rafael A. & Kaski, Kimmo K. & Haraldsson, Guđmundur G. & Aspelund, Thor & Govezensky, Tzipe, 2021. "A model for social spreading of Covid-19: Cases of Mexico, Finland and Iceland," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    20. Fenichel, Eli P., 2013. "Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 440-451.
    21. Yakubenko, Slava, 2021. "Home alone? Effect of weather-induced behaviour on spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    22. Auliya A. Suwantika & Neily Zakiyah & Ajeng Diantini & Rizky Abdulah & Maarten J. Postma, 2020. "The Role of Administrative and Secondary Data in Estimating the Costs and Effects of School and Workplace Closures due to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, October.
    23. Charles Stoecker & Nicholas J. Sanders & Alan Barreca, 2015. "Success is Something to Sneeze at: Influenza Mortality in Regions that Send Teams to the Super Bowl," Working Papers 1501, Tulane University, Department of Economics.

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