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Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs

Author

Listed:
  • Peter J. Mumby

    (Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of BioSciences, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK)

  • Alan Hastings

    (Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA)

  • Helen J. Edwards

    (Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of BioSciences, University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK)

Abstract

Reefs in peril Many coral reefs in the Caribbean are in poor health, having suffered coral losses and increases in macroalgae. Using models, Mumby et al. show that since the mass mortality of a grazing urchin in 1983, Caribbean reefs have shown a general loss of resilience. The reefs are now expected to be highly sensitive to parrot fish exploitation, but this modelling may help identify areas most resilient to both grazing and hurricane damage, with important consequences for reef management.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Mumby & Alan Hastings & Helen J. Edwards, 2007. "Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs," Nature, Nature, vol. 450(7166), pages 98-101, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:450:y:2007:i:7166:d:10.1038_nature06252
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06252
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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Levin & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "On the Coevolution of Economic and Ecological Systems," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 355-377, October.
    2. Huang, Zaitang, 2017. "Positive recurrent of stochastic coral reefs model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 751-761.
    3. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Marzloff, Martin P. & Dambacher, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Craig R. & Little, L. Richard & Frusher, Stewart D., 2011. "Exploring alternative states in ecological systems with a qualitative analysis of community feedback," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2651-2662.
    5. Fenichel, Eli P. & Horan, Richard D., 2016. "Tinbergen and tipping points: Could some thresholds be policy-induced?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 137-152.
    6. Francomano, Elisa & Hilker, Frank M. & Paliaga, Marta & Venturino, Ezio, 2018. "Separatrix reconstruction to identify tipping points in an eco-epidemiological model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 80-91.
    7. Holmes, G. & Johnstone, R.W., 2010. "Modelling coral reef ecosystems with limited observational data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(8), pages 1173-1183.
    8. Auad, Guillermo & Blythe, Jonathan & Coffman, Kim & Fath, Brian D., 2018. "A dynamic management framework for socio-ecological system stewardship: A case study for the United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management," MarXiv nurca, Center for Open Science.
    9. Jorge H. Maldonado & Rocío del Pilar Moreno-Sánchez & Tatiana G. Zárate & Camila Andrea Barrera, 2013. "Valoración económica del subsistema de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Colombia: un análisis para formuladores de política desde un enfoque multi-servicios y multi-agentes," Documentos CEDE 11933, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Jameal F Samhouri & Phillip S Levin & Cameron H Ainsworth, 2010. "Identifying Thresholds for Ecosystem-Based Management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, January.
    11. Renken, Henk & Mumby, Peter J., 2009. "Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(9), pages 1305-1314.
    12. González-Rivero, Manuel & Yakob, Laith & Mumby, Peter J., 2011. "The role of sponge competition on coral reef alternative steady states," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1847-1853.
    13. Gabriel S. Sampson & James N. Sanchirico, 2019. "Exploitation of a Mobile Resource with Costly Cooperation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1135-1163, August.
    14. Nicholas A J Graham & Tim R McClanahan & M Aaron MacNeil & Shaun K Wilson & Nicholas V C Polunin & Simon Jennings & Pascale Chabanet & Susan Clark & Mark D Spalding & Yves Letourneur & Lionel Bigot & , 2008. "Climate Warming, Marine Protected Areas and the Ocean-Scale Integrity of Coral Reef Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(8), pages 1-9, August.
    15. Andrew R. Tilman & Elisabeth H. Krueger & Lisa C. McManus & James R. Watson, 2023. "Maintaining human wellbeing as socio-environmental systems undergo regime shifts," Papers 2309.04578, arXiv.org.
    16. Larsen, Trine C. & Browne, Nicola K. & Erichsen, Anders C. & Tun, Karenne & Todd, Peter A., 2017. "Modelling for management: Coral photo-physiology and growth potential under varying turbidity regimes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 362(C), pages 1-12.
    17. Mollie Chapman & Susanna Klassen & Maayan Kreitzman & Adrian Semmelink & Kelly Sharp & Gerald Singh & Kai M. A. Chan, 2017. "5 Key Challenges and Solutions for Governing Complex Adaptive (Food) Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-30, September.
    18. Ruiz Sebastián, Carlos & McClanahan, Timothy R., 2013. "Description and validation of production processes in the coral reef ecosystem model CAFFEE (Coral–Algae–Fish-Fisheries Ecosystem Energetics) with a fisheries closure and climatic disturbance," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 326-348.
    19. Edwin A. Hernández-Delgado & Pedro Alejandro-Camis & Gerardo Cabrera-Beauchamp & Jaime S. Fonseca-Miranda & Nicolás X. Gómez-Andújar & Pedro Gómez & Roger Guzmán-Rodríguez & Iván Olivo-Maldonado & Sam, 2024. "Stronger Hurricanes and Climate Change in the Caribbean Sea: Threats to the Sustainability of Endangered Coral Species," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-62, February.
    20. Marzloff, Martin P. & Johnson, Craig R. & Little, L. Rich & Soulié, Jean-Christophe & Ling, Scott D. & Frusher, Stewart D., 2013. "Sensitivity analysis and pattern-oriented validation of TRITON, a model with alternative community states: Insights on temperate rocky reefs dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 16-32.
    21. Miñarro, Sara & Leins, Johannes & Acevedo-Trejos, Esteban & Fulton, Elizabeth A. & Reuter, Hauke, 2018. "SEAMANCORE: A spatially explicit simulation model for assisting the local MANagement of COral REefs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 296-307.
    22. Reguero, Borja G. & Beck, Michael W. & Schmid, David & Stadtmüller, Daniel & Raepple, Justus & Schüssele, Stefan & Pfliegner, Kerstin, 2020. "Financing coastal resilience by combining nature-based risk reduction with insurance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    23. Kubicek, Andreas & Reuter, Hauke, 2016. "Mechanics of multiple feedbacks in benthic coral reef communities," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 329(C), pages 29-40.
    24. Clancy, Damian & Tanner, Jason E. & McWilliam, Stephen & Spencer, Matthew, 2010. "Quantifying parameter uncertainty in a coral reef model using Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chain Monte Carlo," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(10), pages 1337-1347.

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