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Trends and random fluctuations in athletics

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Gembris

    (Institute of Medicine, Research Center Jülich GmbH)

  • John G. Taylor

    (King's College London)

  • Dieter Suter

    (University of Dortmund)

Abstract

Improvements in the results of athletic competitions are often considered to stem from better training and equipment, but elements of chance are always present in athletics and these also contribute. Here we distinguish between these two effects by estimating the range into which athletic records would have fallen in the absence of systematic progress and then comparing this with actual performance results. We find that only 4 out of 22 disciplines have shown a systematic improvement, and that annual best results worldwide1 show saturation in some disciplines.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Gembris & John G. Taylor & Dieter Suter, 2002. "Trends and random fluctuations in athletics," Nature, Nature, vol. 417(6888), pages 506-506, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:417:y:2002:i:6888:d:10.1038_417506a
    DOI: 10.1038/417506a
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Heuer & Oliver Rubner, 2012. "How Does the Past of a Soccer Match Influence Its Future? Concepts and Statistical Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-7, November.
    2. Claude Godreche & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2015. "Record statistics for random walk bridges," Papers 1505.06053, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    3. Claude Godreche & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2017. "Record statistics of a strongly correlated time series: random walks and L\'evy flights," Papers 1702.00586, arXiv.org.
    4. Srivastava, Shashi C.L. & Lakshminarayan, Arul, 2015. "Records in the classical and quantum standard map," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 67-78.
    5. Wergen, Gregor, 2014. "Modeling record-breaking stock prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 396(C), pages 114-133.
    6. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2005. "Record Breaking and Temporal Clustering," Discussion Paper Series dp395, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.

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