IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v396y2014icp114-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling record-breaking stock prices

Author

Listed:
  • Wergen, Gregor

Abstract

We study the statistics of record-breaking events in daily stock prices of 366 stocks from the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index. Both the record events in the daily stock prices themselves and the records in the daily returns are discussed. In both cases we try to describe the record statistics of the stock data with simple theoretical models. The daily returns are compared to i.i.d. RVs and the stock prices are modeled using a biased random walk, for which the record statistics are known. These models agree partly with the behavior of the stock data, but we also identify several interesting deviations. Most importantly, the number of records in the stocks appears to be systematically decreased in comparison with the random walk model. Considering the autoregressive AR(1) process, we can predict the record statistics of the daily stock prices more accurately. We also compare the stock data with simulations of the record statistics of the more complicated GARCH(1, 1) model, which, in combination with the AR(1) model, gives the best agreement with the observational data. To better understand our findings, we discuss the survival and first-passage times of stock prices on certain intervals and analyze the correlations between the individual record events. After recapitulating some recent results for the record statistics of ensembles of N stocks, we also present some new observations for the weekly distributions of record events.

Suggested Citation

  • Wergen, Gregor, 2014. "Modeling record-breaking stock prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 396(C), pages 114-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:396:y:2014:i:c:p:114-133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437113010431
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2013.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krug, Joachim & Jain, Kavita, 2005. "Breaking records in the evolutionary race," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 358(1), pages 1-9.
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 203-214, June.
    3. Daniel Gembris & John G. Taylor & Dieter Suter, 2007. "Evolution of Athletic Records: Statistical Effects versus Real Improvements," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 529-545.
    4. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August.
    5. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    6. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    7. Gregor Wergen & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2012. "Record Statistics for Multiple Random Walks," Papers 1204.5039, arXiv.org.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    9. P. Sibani, 2007. "Linear response in aging glassy systems, intermittency and the Poisson statistics of record fluctuations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 58(4), pages 483-491, August.
    10. Ditlevsen, Susanne, 2007. "A result on the first-passage time of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(18), pages 1744-1749, December.
    11. Gregor Wergen & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2012. "Record Statistics for Multiple Random Walks," Post-Print hal-00757701, HAL.
    12. Daniel Gembris & John G. Taylor & Dieter Suter, 2002. "Trends and random fluctuations in athletics," Nature, Nature, vol. 417(6888), pages 506-506, May.
    13. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
    14. Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr & Gregor Wergen, 2012. "Record statistics and persistence for a random walk with a drift," Post-Print hal-00744525, HAL.
    15. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
    16. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169.
    17. Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr & Gregor Wergen, 2012. "Record statistics and persistence for a random walk with a drift," Papers 1206.6972, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    18. Gregor Wergen & Miro Bogner & Joachim Krug, 2011. "Record statistics for biased random walks, with an application to financial data," Papers 1103.0893, arXiv.org.
    19. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. "ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-366, December.
    20. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Bing Xing & Yu, Keming & Coolen, Frank P.A., 2015. "Interval estimation for proportional reversed hazard family based on lower record values," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 115-122.
    2. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Asymmetric and persistent responses in price volatility of fertilizers through stable and unstable periods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 405-414.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claude Godreche & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2017. "Record statistics of a strongly correlated time series: random walks and L\'evy flights," Papers 1702.00586, arXiv.org.
    2. Claude Godreche & Satya N. Majumdar & Gregory Schehr, 2015. "Record statistics for random walk bridges," Papers 1505.06053, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    3. Gregory Schehr & Satya N. Majumdar, 2013. "Exact record and order statistics of random walks via first-passage ideas," Papers 1305.0639, arXiv.org.
    4. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Modelling the Intraday Return Volatility Process In The Australian Equity Market: An Examination Of The Role Of Information Arrival In S&P/Asx 50 Stocks," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 150, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    5. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fazal HUSAIN & Jamshed UPPAL, 1999. "STOCK RETURNS VOLATILITY IN AN EMERGING MARKET: The Pakistani Evidence," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 15, pages 19-40.
    7. Daly, Kevin, 2008. "Financial volatility: Issues and measuring techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2377-2393.
    8. Srivastava, Shashi C.L. & Lakshminarayan, Arul, 2015. "Records in the classical and quantum standard map," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 67-78.
    9. Cornelis A. Los & Rossitsa M. Yalamova, 2004. "Multi-Fractal Spectral Analysis of the 1987 Stock Market Crash," Finance 0409050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. G Sandmann & Siem Jan Koopman, 1996. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp248, Financial Markets Group.
    11. John Cotter & Simon Stevenson, 2008. "Modeling Long Memory in REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 533-554, September.
    12. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 1998. "Sensitivity of the bank stock returns distribution to changes in the level and volatility of interest rate: A GARCH-M model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 535-563, May.
    13. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2016. "Stock returns and economic forces—An empirical investigation of Chinese markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 45-65.
    14. Liu, Chang & Chang, Chuo, 2021. "Combination of transition probability distribution and stable Lorentz distribution in stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    15. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-661, July.
    17. Shekar Bose, 2001. "Price volatility of south-east fishery's quota species: an empirical analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 283-297.
    18. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Eugene Stanley, H., 2008. "Quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 303-319, January.
    19. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    20. Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:396:y:2014:i:c:p:114-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.