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Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flock

Author

Listed:
  • N. M. Ferguson

    (Technology and Medicine)

  • A. C. Ghani

    (Technology and Medicine)

  • C. A. Donnelly

    (Technology and Medicine)

  • T. J. Hagenaars

    (Technology and Medicine)

  • R. M. Anderson

    (Technology and Medicine)

Abstract

Following the controversial failure of a recent study1 and the small numbers of animals yet screened for infection2, it remains uncertain whether bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was transmitted to sheep in the past via feed supplements and whether it is still present. Well grounded mathematical and statistical models are therefore essential to integrate the limited and disparate data, to explore uncertainty, and to define data-collection priorities. We analysed the implications of different scenarios of BSE spread in sheep for relative human exposure levels and variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (vCJD) incidence. Here we show that, if BSE entered the sheep population and a degree of transmission occurred, then ongoing public health risks from ovine BSE are likely to be greater than those from cattle, but that any such risk could be reduced by up to 90% through additional restrictions on sheep products entering the food supply. Extending the analysis to consider absolute risk, we estimate the 95% confidence interval for future vCJD mortality to be 50 to 50,000 human deaths considering exposure to bovine BSE alone, with the upper bound increasing to 150,000 once we include exposure from the worst-case ovine BSE scenario examined.

Suggested Citation

  • N. M. Ferguson & A. C. Ghani & C. A. Donnelly & T. J. Hagenaars & R. M. Anderson, 2002. "Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flock," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6870), pages 420-424, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:415:y:2002:i:6870:d:10.1038_nature709
    DOI: 10.1038/nature709
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric P. M. Grist, 2005. "Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy Risk Assessment: The UK experience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 519-532, June.
    2. Enda Cummins & Amie Adkin, 2007. "Exposure Assessment of TSEs from the Landspreading of Meat and Bone Meal," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(5), pages 1179-1202, October.
    3. Fox, John A. & Hanawa Peterson, Hikaru, 2004. "Risks and implications of bovine spongiform encephalopathy for the United States: insights from other countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 45-60, February.
    4. Ioannidis, John P.A. & Cripps, Sally & Tanner, Martin A., 2022. "Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 423-438.
    5. Rothstein, Henry, 2003. "Precautionary bans or sacrificial lambs? Participative regulation and the reform of the UK food safety regime," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 352, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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