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Germany’s decision to phase out coal by 2038 lags behind citizens’ timing preferences

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  • Adrian Rinscheid

    (Institute for Economy and the Environment, University of St.Gallen)

  • Rolf Wüstenhagen

    (Institute for Economy and the Environment, University of St.Gallen)

Abstract

Coal-fired power generation is the single most important source of carbon dioxide emissions in many countries, including Germany. A government commission recently proposed to phase out coal by 2038, which implies that the country will miss its 2020 climate target. On the basis of a choice experiment that assessed 31,744 hypothetical policy scenarios in a representative sample of German voters, we show that voters prefer a phase-out by 2025. They would uphold their support for greater climate ambition up to an additional cost to society of €8.5 billion. Voters in Rhineland and Lusatia, the country’s main coal regions, also support an earlier phase-out, but to a lesser extent than voters in other regions. By demonstrating that political decision-makers are more reluctant than voters in overcoming energy path dependence, our analysis calls for further research to explain the influence of particular stakeholders in slowing energy transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Rinscheid & Rolf Wüstenhagen, 2019. "Germany’s decision to phase out coal by 2038 lags behind citizens’ timing preferences," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 856-863, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:4:y:2019:i:10:d:10.1038_s41560-019-0460-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-019-0460-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Kamila Svobodova & John R. Owen & Deanna Kemp & Vítězslav Moudrý & Éléonore Lèbre & Martin Stringer & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2022. "Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2022. "Rendre acceptable la nécessaire taxation du carbone. Quelles pistes pour la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 15-53.
    3. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2022. "Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Daniele Malerba, 2022. "The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(3), pages 1358-1382, June.
    5. Jindal, Abhinav & Shrimali, Gireesh, 2022. "Cost–benefit analysis of coal plant repurposing in developing countries: A case study of India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Daniel Rosenbloom & Adrian Rinscheid, 2020. "Deliberate decline: An emerging frontier for the study and practice of decarbonization," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(6), November.
    7. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2020. "Causality between CO2 Emissions and Stock Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, June.

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