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Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

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  • Peter Ditlevsen

    (Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen)

  • Susanne Ditlevsen

    (Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen, 2023. "Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-39810-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrey Ganopolski & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2001. "Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 409(6817), pages 153-158, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan & Escribano, Álvaro & Kristof, Erzsebet, 2024. "Global, Arctic, and Antarctic sea ice volume predictions: using score-driven threshold climate models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39546, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. R.Boucekkine & W.Ruan & B.Zou, 2024. "Optimal behavior under pollution irreversibility risk and distance to the irreversibility thresholds: A global approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2024001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. Raoul Boucekkine & Weiha Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2023. "Optimal behavior under pollution irreversibility risk and distance to the irreversibility thresholds: A global approach," DEM Discussion Paper Series 23-16, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    4. Florian Diekert & Daniel Heyen & Frikk Nesje & Soheil Shayegh, 2024. "Balancing the Risk of Tipping: Early Warning Systems from Detection to Management," CESifo Working Paper Series 10892, CESifo.
    5. B. Cooper Boniece & Lajos Horv'ath & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "On changepoint detection in functional data using empirical energy distance," Papers 2310.04853, arXiv.org.

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