IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-32416-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink

Author

Listed:
  • Michael O’Sullivan

    (University of Exeter)

  • Pierre Friedlingstein

    (University of Exeter
    Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X)

  • Stephen Sitch

    (University of Exeter)

  • Peter Anthoni

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research)

  • Almut Arneth

    (Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research)

  • Vivek K. Arora

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Vladislav Bastrikov

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Christine Delire

    (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Daniel S. Goll

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Atul Jain

    (University of Illinois)

  • Etsushi Kato

    (Institute of Applied Energy (IAE))

  • Daniel Kennedy

    (Terrestrial Sciences Section)

  • Jürgen Knauer

    (Western Sydney University
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Sebastian Lienert

    (University of Bern)

  • Danica Lombardozzi

    (Terrestrial Sciences Section)

  • Patrick C. McGuire

    (University of Reading)

  • Joe R. Melton

    (Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Julia E. M. S. Nabel

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

  • Julia Pongratz

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München)

  • Benjamin Poulter

    (Biospheric Sciences Laboratory)

  • Roland Séférian

    (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Hanqin Tian

    (Boston College)

  • Nicolas Vuichard

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Anthony P. Walker

    (Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab)

  • Wenping Yuan

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Xu Yue

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST))

  • Sönke Zaehle

    (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

Abstract

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years. This uncertainty is driven by plant productivity, allocation, and turnover response to atmospheric CO2 (and to a smaller extent to LULCC), and the response of soil to LULCC (and to a lesser extent climate). Overall, differences in turnover explain ~70% of model spread in both vegetation and soil carbon changes. Further analysis of internal plant and soil (individual pools) cycling is needed to reduce uncertainty in the controlling processes behind the global land carbon sink.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael O’Sullivan & Pierre Friedlingstein & Stephen Sitch & Peter Anthoni & Almut Arneth & Vivek K. Arora & Vladislav Bastrikov & Christine Delire & Daniel S. Goll & Atul Jain & Etsushi Kato & Daniel, 2022. "Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32416-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32416-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Ciais & J. Tan & X. Wang & C. Roedenbeck & F. Chevallier & S.-L. Piao & R. Moriarty & G. Broquet & C. Quéré & J. G. Canadell & S. Peng & B. Poulter & Z. Liu & P. Tans, 2019. "Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient," Nature, Nature, vol. 568(7751), pages 221-225, April.
    2. Xuhui Wang & Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Pierre Friedlingstein & Ranga B. Myneni & Peter Cox & Martin Heimann & John Miller & Shushi Peng & Tao Wang & Hui Yang & Anping Chen, 2014. "A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations," Nature, Nature, vol. 506(7487), pages 212-215, February.
    3. Colin Averill & Benjamin L. Turner & Adrien C. Finzi, 2014. "Mycorrhiza-mediated competition between plants and decomposers drives soil carbon storage," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7484), pages 543-545, January.
    4. Luciana V. Gatti & Luana S. Basso & John B. Miller & Manuel Gloor & Lucas Gatti Domingues & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Graciela Tejada & Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Carlos Nobre & Wouter Peters & Luciano Mara, 2021. "Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7867), pages 388-393, July.
    5. Karl-Heinz Erb & Thomas Kastner & Christoph Plutzar & Anna Liza S. Bais & Nuno Carvalhais & Tamara Fetzel & Simone Gingrich & Helmut Haberl & Christian Lauk & Maria Niedertscheider & Julia Pongratz & , 2018. "Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass," Nature, Nature, vol. 553(7686), pages 73-76, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mengting Dong & Zeyuan Liu & Xiufeng Ni & Zhulin Qi & Jinnan Wang & Qingyu Zhang, 2023. "Re-Evaluating the Value of Ecosystem Based on Carbon Benefit: A Case Study in Chengdu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Min Liu & Yinrong Chen & Kun Chen & Yi Chen, 2023. "Progress and Hotspots of Research on Land-Use Carbon Emissions: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, April.
    3. Wenmin Zhang & Guy Schurgers & Josep Peñuelas & Rasmus Fensholt & Hui Yang & Jing Tang & Xiaowei Tong & Philippe Ciais & Martin Brandt, 2023. "Recent decrease of the impact of tropical temperature on the carbon cycle linked to increased precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Selma Bultan & Julia E. M. S. Nabel & Kerstin Hartung & Raphael Ganzenmüller & Liang Xu & Sassan Saatchi & Julia Pongratz, 2022. "Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Yao Zhang & Pierre Gentine & Xiangzhong Luo & Xu Lian & Yanlan Liu & Sha Zhou & Anna M. Michalak & Wu Sun & Joshua B. Fisher & Shilong Piao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2022. "Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Myrgiotis, Vasileios & Blei, Emanuel & Clement, Rob & Jones, Stephanie K. & Keane, Ben & Lee, Mark A. & Levy, Peter E. & Rees, Robert M. & Skiba, Ute M. & Smallman, Thomas Luke & Toet, Sylvia & Willia, 2020. "A model-data fusion approach to analyse carbon dynamics in managed grasslands," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    7. Claudia Melis & Per-Arvid Wold & Anna Maria Billing & Kathrine Bjørgen & Børge Moe, 2020. "Kindergarten Children’s Perception about the Ecological Roles of Living Organisms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-15, November.
    8. Zefeng Chen & Weiguang Wang & Giovanni Forzieri & Alessandro Cescatti, 2024. "Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Wehrle, Sebastian & Gruber, Katharina & Schmidt, Johannes, 2021. "The cost of undisturbed landscapes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    10. Michel G. J. Elzen & Ioannis Dafnomilis & Nicklas Forsell & Panagiotis Fragkos & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Niklas Höhne & Takeshi Kuramochi & Leonardo Nascimento & Mark Roelfsema & Heleen Soest & Frank Sp, 2022. "Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1-29, June.
    11. Feng, Jing-Chun & Sun, Liwei & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Carbon sequestration via shellfish farming: A potential negative emissions technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Piao Zhou & Lin Zhang & Shi Qi, 2022. "Plant Diversity and Aboveground Biomass Interact with Abiotic Factors to Drive Soil Organic Carbon in Beijing Mountainous Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-12, August.
    13. Fernandes, Stephannie & Fernandes, Geraldo W. & Fearnside, Philip M., 2023. "Viewpoint: Sovereignty and reversing Brazil’s history of Amazon destruction," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Thony Huera-Lucero & Adela Salas-Ruiz & Daysi Changoluisa & Carlos Bravo-Medina, 2020. "Towards Sustainable Urban Planning for Puyo (Ecuador): Amazon Forest Landscape as Potential Green Infrastructure," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    15. Hou, Dawei & Meng, Fanhao & Ji, Chao & Xie, Li & Zhu, Wenjuan & Wang, Shizhong & Sun, Hua, 2022. "Linking food production and environmental outcomes: An application of a modified relative risk model to prioritize land-management practices," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    16. Wenli Yang & Langang Feng & Zuogong Wang & Xiangbo Fan, 2023. "Carbon Emissions and National Sustainable Development Goals Coupling Coordination Degree Study from a Global Perspective: Characteristics, Heterogeneity, and Spatial Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.
    17. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Dost, Florian, 2015. "A non-linear causal network of marketing channel system structure," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 49-57.
    19. Fischer, Rico & Bohn, Friedrich & Dantas de Paula, Mateus & Dislich, Claudia & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Kazmierczak, Martin & Knapp, Nikolai & Lehmann, Sebastian & Paulick, Sebastia, 2016. "Lessons learned from applying a forest gap model to understand ecosystem and carbon dynamics of complex tropical forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 124-133.
    20. Richter, Franziska & Jan, Pierrick & El Benni, Nadja & Lüscher, Andreas & Buchmann, Nina & Klaus, Valentin H., 2021. "A guide to assess and value ecosystem services of grasslands," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32416-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.