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Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the 2017 extreme coastal El Niño

Author

Listed:
  • Qihua Peng

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of California San Diego
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Shang-Ping Xie

    (University of California San Diego
    Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Dongxiao Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xiao-Tong Zheng

    (Ocean University of China, and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Hong Zhang

    (University of California)

Abstract

In March 2017, sea surface temperatures off Peru rose above 28 °C, causing torrential rains that affected the lives of millions of people. This coastal warming is highly unusual in that it took place with a weak La Niña state. Observations and ocean model experiments show that the downwelling Kelvin waves caused by strong westerly wind events over the equatorial Pacific, together with anomalous northerly coastal winds, are important. Atmospheric model experiments further show the anomalous coastal winds are forced by the coastal warming. Taken together, these results indicate a positive feedback off Peru between the coastal warming, atmospheric deep convection, and the coastal winds. These coupled processes provide predictability. Indeed, initialized on as early as 1 February 2017, seasonal prediction models captured the extreme rainfall event. Climate model projections indicate that the frequency of extreme coastal El Niño will increase under global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Qihua Peng & Shang-Ping Xie & Dongxiao Wang & Xiao-Tong Zheng & Hong Zhang, 2019. "Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics of the 2017 extreme coastal El Niño," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-08258-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-08258-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Pécastaing, Nicolas & Salavarriga, Juan, 2022. "The potential impact of fishing in peruvian marine protected areas (MPAs) on artisanal fishery poverty during El Niño events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

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