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Overcoming COVID-19 vaccination resistance when alternative policies affect the dynamics of conformism, social norms, and crowding out

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  • Katrin Schmelz

    (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, 78457 Konstanz, Germany; Thurgau Institute of Economics (TWI), 8280 Kreuzlingen, Switzerland)

  • Samuel Bowles

    (Behavioral Sciences Program Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501)

Abstract

What is an effective vaccination policy to end the COVID-19 pandemic? We address this question in a model of the dynamics of policy effectiveness drawing upon the results of a large panel survey implemented in Germany during the first and second waves of the pandemic. We observe increased opposition to vaccinations were they to be legally required. In contrast, for voluntary vaccinations, there was higher and undiminished support. We find that public distrust undermines vaccine acceptance, and is associated with a belief that the vaccine is ineffective and, if enforced, compromises individual freedom. We model how the willingness to be vaccinated may vary over time in response to the fraction of the population already vaccinated and whether vaccination has occurred voluntarily or not. A negative effect of enforcement on vaccine acceptance (of the magnitude observed in our panel or even considerably smaller) could result in a large increase in the numbers that would have to be vaccinated unwillingly in order to reach a herd-immunity target. Costly errors may be avoided if policy makers understand that citizens’ preferences are not fixed but will be affected both by the crowding-out effect of enforcement and by conformism. Our findings have broad policy applicability beyond COVID-19 to cases in which voluntary citizen compliance is essential because state capacities are limited and because effectiveness may depend on the ways that the policies themselves alter citizens’ beliefs and preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Katrin Schmelz & Samuel Bowles, 2021. "Overcoming COVID-19 vaccination resistance when alternative policies affect the dynamics of conformism, social norms, and crowding out," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(25), pages 2104912118-, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2104912118
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bartscher, Alina Kristin & Seitz, Sebastian & Siegloch, Sebastian & Slotwinski, Michaela & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2021. "Social capital and the spread of covid-19: Insights from european countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Louise Rawlings & Jeffrey C. L. Looi & Stephen J. Robson, 2022. "Economic Considerations in COVID‐19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Refusal: A Survey of the Literature," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(321), pages 214-229, June.
    3. Yihan Zhao & Rong Chen & Mitsuyasu Yabe & Buxin Han & Pingping Liu, 2021. "I Am Better Than Others: Waste Management Policies and Self-Enhancement Bias," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Reddinger, J. Lucas & Charness, Gary & Levine, David, 2022. "Prosocial motivation for vaccination," SocArXiv emj6v, Center for Open Science.
    5. Michael Stolpe, 2022. "Impfpflichten, Anreize und die effiziente Nutzung von Coronaimpfstoffen [Vaccine Mandates, Private Incentives and the Efficient Use of Coronavirus Vaccines]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(3), pages 224-228, March.
    6. Fadwa El Guindi, 2022. "Turning the world on its head: The virus that disrupted “business as usual”," Economic Anthropology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 149-154, January.
    7. Keser, Claudia & Rau, Holger A., 2022. "Policy incentives and determinants of citizens' COVID-19 vaccination motives," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 434, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Laura Colautti & Alice Cancer & Sara Magenes & Alessandro Antonietti & Paola Iannello, 2022. "Risk-Perception Change Associated with COVID-19 Vaccine’s Side Effects: The Role of Individual Differences," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-14, January.

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