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Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries

Author

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  • Jonathan J. Azose

    (Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, Computing and Analytics, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Seattle, WA 98109)

  • Adrian E. Raftery

    (Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195)

Abstract

We propose a method for estimating migration flows between all pairs of countries that allows for decomposition of migration into emigration, return, and transit components. Current state-of-the-art estimates of bilateral migration flows rely on the assumption that the number of global migrants is as small as possible. We relax this assumption, producing complete estimates of all between-country migration flows with genuine estimates of total global migration. We find that the total number of individuals migrating internationally has oscillated between 1.13 and 1.29% of the global population per 5-year period since 1990. Return migration and transit migration are big parts of total migration; roughly one of four migration events is a return to an individual’s country of birth. In the most recent time period, we estimate particularly large return migration flows from the United States to Central and South America and from the Persian Gulf to south Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan J. Azose & Adrian E. Raftery, 2019. "Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(1), pages 116-122, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:116:y:2019:p:116-122
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Buettner, 2020. "World Population Prospects – A Long View," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 9-27.
    2. Dominik Paprotny, 2021. "Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 193-225, January.
    3. Qing Guan & James Raymer & Juliet Pietsch, 2022. "Estimating International Migration Flows for Pacific Island Countries: A Research Brief," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 1917-1930, October.
    4. Clemens, Michael A. & Ginn, Thomas, 2020. "Global Mobility and the Threat of Pandemics: Evidence from Three Centuries," IZA Discussion Papers 13947, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    6. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
    7. Luis E C Rocha & Petter Holme & Claudio D G Linhares, 2022. "The global migration network of sex-workers," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 969-985, May.
    8. Sameeksha Desai & Wim Naudé & Nora Stel, 2021. "Refugee entrepreneurship: context and directions for future research," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 933-945, February.
    9. Trond Husby & Hans Visser, 2021. "Short- to medium-run forecasting of mobility with dynamic linear models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(28), pages 871-902.
    10. Del Fava, Emanuele & Wiśniowsk, Arkadiusz & Zagheni, Emilio, 2019. "Modelling International Migration Flows by Integrating Multiple Data Sources," SocArXiv cma5h, Center for Open Science.
    11. Wassink, Joshua, 2020. "International migration experience and entrepreneurship: Evidence from Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Nelly Elmallakh & Jackline Wahba, 2022. "Return migrants and the wage premium: does the legal status of migrants matter?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1631-1685, October.
    13. Augustin de Coulon & Richmond Egyei & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2020. "Immigration Stocks and Flows, APS and Electoral Register Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-13, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    14. Dana Glei & Andres Barajas Paz & Jose Manuel Aburto & Magali Barbieri, 2021. "Mexican mortality 1990‒2016: Comparison of unadjusted and adjusted estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(30), pages 719-758.
    15. Daniela Perrotta & Sarah C. Johnson & Tom Theile & André Grow & Helga de Valk & Emilio Zagheni, 2022. "Openness to migrate internationally for a job: evidence from LinkedIn data in Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Els Bekaert & Amelie F. Constant & Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen, 2021. "Longing for Which Home: Evidence from Global Aspirations to Stay, Return or Migrate Onwards," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1028, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. James Raymer & Xujing Bai & Nan Liu, 2020. "The dynamic complexity of Australia’s immigration and emigration flows from 1981 to 2016," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 213-242, September.
    18. El-Mallakh, Nelly & Wahba, Jackline, 2021. "Upward or downward: Occupational mobility and return migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Xiao Hui Tai & Shikhar Mehra & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2022. "Mobile phone data reveal the effects of violence on internal displacement in Afghanistan," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 624-634, May.
    20. Albano Rikani & Jacob Schewe, 2021. "Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(4), pages 87-140.
    21. Chen Chen & Aude Bernard & Ryan Rylee & Guy Abel, 2022. "Brain Circulation: The Educational Profile of Return Migrants," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(1), pages 387-399, February.
    22. Anupam Nanda & Olayiwola Oladiran, 2022. "Examining regional asymmetries in drivers of international migration flows," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 648-667, December.
    23. Shafei Gu & Eric Fong, 2022. "Migration from Muslim-Majority Countries: A Tale of Two Patterns," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1853-1872, August.
    24. Hélène Benveniste & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Matthew Gidden & Raya Muttarak, 2021. "Tracing international migration in projections of income and inequality across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-22, June.
    25. Berlemann, Michael & Haustein, Erik & Steinhardt, Max F., 2021. "From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus," IZA Discussion Papers 14450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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