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Uncertainty: A Typology and Refinements of Existing Concepts

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  • David Dequech

Abstract

The present article proposes a typology of the main varieties of uncertainty considered by economists and refines existing concepts. This typology combines three distinctions, between: substantive and procedural uncertainty; weak and strong uncertainty; and ambiguity and fundamental uncertainty. These concepts refer, or fail to refer, to factors such as: a lack of information; complexity; the (im)possibility of building probability distributions that are unique, additive and reliable; structural change; etc. When refining these concepts, the article pays special attention to the conception of social reality underlying each concept. It refers to what each concept may imply about the complexity and changeability of social reality and the limitations and creative potential of the individuals that inhabit this reality, in addition to, in some cases, the roles of institutions and the features of the process of technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • David Dequech, 2011. "Uncertainty: A Typology and Refinements of Existing Concepts," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 621-640.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:jeciss:v:45:y:2011:i:3:p:621-640
    DOI: 10.2753/JEI0021-3624450306
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Kriz & Catherine Welch, 2018. "Innovation and internationalisation processes of firms with new-to-the-world technologies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(4), pages 496-522, May.
    2. Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino, 2021. "Risk aversion and fertility. Evidence from a lottery question in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2021_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Gilbert-Saad, Antoine & Siedlok, Frank & McNaughton, Rod B., 2018. "Decision and design heuristics in the context of entrepreneurial uncertainties," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 75-80.
    4. Bender, Katja & Rohregger, Barbara & Kinuthia, Bethuel & Ikua, Grace & Schüring, Esther & Adamba, Clement & Alatinga, Kennedy A. & Pouw, Nicky, 2021. "Different pathways of social protection reforms: An analysis of long-term institutional change in Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Ramoglou, Stratos, 2021. "Knowable opportunities in an unknowable future? On the epistemological paradoxes of entrepreneurship theory," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 36(2).
    6. Gabriel A. Giménez Roche & Didier Calcei, 2021. "The role of demand routines in entrepreneurial judgment," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 209-235, January.
    7. Malcolm Sawyer, 2020. "The past, present and future of evolutionary macroeconomics," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 37-54, May.
    8. Miguel Vazquez, 2018. "Institutional dynamics in an economy seen as a complex adaptive system," IEFE Working Papers 104, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Bas Aarle & Cindy Moons, 2017. "Sentiment and Uncertainty Fluctuations and Their Effects on the Euro Area Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(2), pages 225-251, November.
    10. repec:prg:jnlpol:v:preprint:id:1407 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2016. "On Measuring Uncertainty: Snakes and Ladders," IZA Discussion Papers 10244, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Müller, Christian, 2015. "Radical uncertainty: Sources, manifestations and implications," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Mark D. Packard & Brent B. Clark & Peter G. Klein, 2017. "Uncertainty Types and Transitions in the Entrepreneurial Process," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 840-856, October.
    14. Cisnetto, Valentina & Barlow, James, 2020. "The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(3).
    15. Strachman, Eduardo, 2016. "Notas sobre Mecanismos de Transmissão da Política Monetária [Some Notes on the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms]," MPRA Paper 72856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Aldred, Jonathan, 2013. "Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 132-140.
    17. Richard J. Arend, 2022. "Strategic decision-making under ambiguity: insights from exploring a simple linked two-game model," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 5845-5861, November.
    18. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    19. Annalisa Ferrari & Piergiuseppe Morone & Valentina E. Tartiu, 2016. "Tackling Uncertainty through Business Plan Analysis—A Case Study on Citrus Waste Valorisation in the South of Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-12, January.
    20. David Dequech, 2008. "Varieties of uncertainty: a survey of the economic literature," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211223070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    21. Yunus Karaömer & Arif Eser Guzel, 2024. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock Returns: Analysing the Moderating Role of Government Size," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(1), pages 50-72.
    22. David Dequech, 2016. "Some Institutions (Social Norms And Conventions) Of Contemporary Mainstream Economics, Macroeconomics, And Financial Economics," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 006, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    23. David J. Rapp & Michael Olbrich, 2020. "On entrepreneurial decision logics under conditions of uncertainty: an attempt to advance the current debate," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    24. Kurdoglu, Rasim Serdar & Lerner, Daniel & Ates, Nufer Yasin, 2022. "Unsticking the rationality stalemate: Motivated reasoning, reality, and irrationality," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).

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