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Predicting the Institutional Effects of Term Limits

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  • Franklin, Daniel
  • Westin, Tor
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    Abstract

    In this paper, the authors develop a model to predict the seniority turnover, and transition consequences of term limit reforms for any institution with a regularized procedure for rotating membership. With this model they can predict the number of members who will be serving in their last term at any given time once an institution reaches a stable state under term limit reforms. For example, the authors results show that for the U.S. Senate current term limit proposals will result in a substantial increase in the number of 'lame duck' members and a significant reduction in average seniority. They make no claims as to the public policy effects of term limit proposals. However, their model can be used to design a proposal that will maximize any benefits or minimize any public policy effects found to be associated with term limit reforms. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

    Volume (Year): 96 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3-4 (September)
    Pages: 381-93

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:96:y:1998:i:3-4:p:381-93

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100332

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    Cited by:
    1. Michael Smart & Daniel M. Sturm, 2006. "Term limits and electoral accountability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19771, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Natalya Brown, 2014. "Candidate Ambition and Advancement under Term Limits," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 53-64, March.
    3. Mark Schelker, 2012. "The influence of auditor term length and term limits on US state general obligation bond ratings," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 27-49, January.

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