IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/poprpr/v43y2024i2d10.1007_s11113-024-09867-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Caballero Reina

    (World Data Lab
    University of Cambridge)

  • Jesus Crespo Cuaresma

    (World Data Lab
    Vienna University of Economics and Business
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital)

  • Katharina Fenz

    (World Data Lab
    Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Jakob Zellmann

    (World Data Lab
    Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Teodor Yankov

    (World Data Lab
    University College London (UCL))

  • Amr Taha

    (The International Organization for Migration (IOM))

Abstract

This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Caballero Reina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Katharina Fenz & Jakob Zellmann & Teodor Yankov & Amr Taha, 2024. "Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09867-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan Azose & Adrian Raftery, 2015. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(5), pages 1627-1650, October.
    2. Ronald Lee & A. Mason & E. Amporfu & C.-B. An & L. R. Bixby & J. Bravo & M. Bucheli & Q. Chen & P. Comelatto & D. Coy & Hippolyte d'Albis & G. Donehower & L. Dramani & A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz & R. I. G, 2014. "Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01075298, HAL.
    3. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    4. David Karemera & Victor Iwuagwu Oguledo & Bobby Davis, 2000. "A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1745-1755.
    5. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & members of the NTA Network, 2022. "Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 51-73, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.
    2. Albert MILLOGO & Ines TROJETTE & Nicolas PÉRIDY, 2021. "Are government policies efficient to regulate immigration? Evidence from France," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 53, pages 23-49.
    3. Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
    4. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    5. Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, April.
    6. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    7. Gianluca Orefice, 2015. "International migration and trade agreements: The new role of PTAs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(1), pages 310-334, February.
    8. Marcén, Miriam & Bellido, Héctor, 2015. "Spaniards in the wider World," MPRA Paper 63966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    10. Soheil Shayegh & Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2022. "International Migration Projections across Skill Levels in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    11. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    12. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    13. repec:mse:cesdoc:13045 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ådne Cappelen & Terje Skjerpen, 2012. "Immigration to Norway 1969-2010. Effects of policies and EEA membership," Discussion Papers 687, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    15. Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Balazs Palvolgyi & Alessandro Turrini, 2016. "Labour mobility and labour market adjustment in the EU," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Jessie Bakens & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Peter Mulder, 2018. "Ethnic drift and white flight: A gravity model of neighborhood formation," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(5), pages 921-948, November.
    17. Francesco Nicolli & Giulia Bettin, 2012. "Does climate change foster emigration from less developed countries? Evidence from bilateral data," Working Papers 201210, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
    18. Sajitha Beevi Karayil, 2021. "Movement of natural persons and the sieve of immigration policy: Evidence from United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 853-879, November.
    19. Rodríguez-Montemayor, Eduardo & García, Pablo M., 2009. "A Primer of International Migration: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2544, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Mohamed Arouri & Nguyen Viet Cuong, 2020. "Wealth inequality and inter-governorate migration: Evidence from Egypt," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 20(2), pages 119-139, April.
    21. Ortega, Francesc & Peri, Giovanni, 2012. "The Role of Income and Immigration Policies in Attracting International Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 6655, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09867-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.