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Decision Theory Matters for Financial Advice

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Hens

    (Swiss Finance Institute
    Norwegian School of Economic)

  • János Mayer

    (University of Zurich)

Abstract

We show that the optimal asset allocation for an investor depends crucially on the decision theory with which the investor is modeled. For the same market data and the same client data different theories lead to different portfolios. The market data we consider is standard asset allocation data. The client data is determined by a standard risk profiling question and the theories we apply are mean–variance analysis, expected utility analysis and cumulative prospect theory. For testing the robustness of our results, we carry out the comparisons for alternative data sets and also for variants of the risk profiling question.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Hens & János Mayer, 2018. "Decision Theory Matters for Financial Advice," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 195-226, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:52:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10614-017-9668-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-017-9668-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorsten HENS & János MAYER, 2014. "Cumulative Prospect Theory and Mean Variance Analysis: A Rigorous Comparison," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-23, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    3. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    4. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
    5. Peter P. Wakker, 2008. "Explaining the characteristics of the power (CRRA) utility family," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1329-1344, December.
    6. Haim Levy, 2004. "Prospect Theory and Mean-Variance Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1015-1041.
    7. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Levy,Haim, 2012. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model in the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107006713.
    9. Mohammed Abdellaoui & Han Bleichrodt & Corina Paraschiv, 2007. "Loss Aversion Under Prospect Theory: A Parameter-Free Measurement," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(10), pages 1659-1674, October.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    11. Peter P. Wakker, 2008. "Explaining the characteristics of the power (CRRA) utility family," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1329-1344.
    12. Levy,Haim, 2012. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model in the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521186513.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cumulative prospect theory; Expected utility analysis; Mean–variance analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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