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The Predictability of House Prices

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Author Info
Anthony Y. Gu () (State University of New York, Geneseo, NY 14454)
Abstract

The level and direction of autocorrelation in house price movements differ across areas and change over time. This finding reconciles the conflicting reports in the literature. When quarterly house price indices exhibit negative autocorrelation, autocorrelation shows a positive connection to volatility and a negative connection to rate of return. Autocorrelation between longer time periods is mainly positive; it exhibits a negative relationship with volatility and a positive relationship with rate of return. Volatile house price indices tend to have lower rates of return. It would be possible to obtain excess returns by following a trading strategy based on the estimated autocorrelation.

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File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol24n03/01.213_234.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 24 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 213-234
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Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:24:n:3:2002:p:213-234

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Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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  1. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2007. "Multiple Transactions Model: A Panel Data Approach to Estimate Housing Market Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(3), pages 241-266. [Downloadable!]
  2. Joe Tak-Yun Wong & Eddie Hui & William Seabrooke & John Raftery, 2005. "A study of the Hong Kong property market: housing price expectations," Construction Management & Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 757-765, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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