Estimating Structural Breaks Endogenously in India's Post-Independence Growth Path: An Empirical Critique
AbstractThis paper attempts to address empirical and methodological issues with regard to endogenous estimation of break dates in India's GDP and sub-sector series and finds that detection of break dates is sensitive to base year changes, marginal extension of time series and alteration of the length of the partition. The study uses series of Indian GDP and sub-sectors at two different base years to evaluate its effect on variation in break dates. To take into account the effect of marginal increase of time series, break dates are estimated on time series from 1950-51 to 2003-04 and 2008-09. The study also raises the issue about selection of the length of partition, which can affect detection of break dates. These empirical limitations do not lead to any conclusive evidence of break dates and hence cannot help settle the debates over different growth and policy regimes of the Indian economy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The Indian Econometric Society in its journal Journal of Quantitative Economics.
Volume (Year): 9 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Postal: Managing Editor, Journal of Quantitative Economics, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Gen. A.K. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (E), Mumbai 400 065 , INDIA
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