Moment tests for density forecast evaluation in the presence of parameter estimation uncertainty
AbstractDensity forecast (DF) possesses appealing properties when it is correctly specified for the true conditional distribution. Although a number of parametric specification tests have been introduced for the DF evaluation (DFE) in the parameter-free context, econometric DF models are typically parameter‐dependent. In this paper, we first use a generalized probability integral transformation‐based moment test to unify these existing tests, and then apply the Newey–Tauchen method (the West–McCracken method) to correct this unified test as a generalized full‐sample (out‐of‐sample) test in the parameter‐dependent context. Unlike the corrected tests, the uncorrected tests could be substantially undersized (oversized) when they are directly applied to the full‐sample (out‐of‐sample) DFE in the presence of parameter estimation uncertainty. We also use a simulation to show the usefulness of the corrected tests in rectifying the size distortion problem, and apply the corrected tests to an empirical study of stock index returns. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
density forecast evaluation ; moment test ; parameter estimation uncertainty ; probability integral transformation ;
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- González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
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