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Estimating the Impact of Efficiency Standards on the Uncertainty of the Northwest Electric System

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  • Andrew Ford

    (University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California)

Abstract

The uncertainty of the Northwest electric system was the subject of a recent study for the Bonneville Power Administration. System uncertainty was described along two dimensions over a twenty year planning period. One dimension was uncertainty in the demand for electricity; the second dimension was uncertainty in the price of electricity. The study focused on the impact of efficiency standards that would reduce the electricity used in new buildings and appliances. Many planners expect that the standards would reduce the long-term uncertainty in electricity demand. Some planners have come to realize that the standards could also reduce the long-term uncertainty in the price of electricity. This paper explains the case study approach to estimating the magnitude of these reductions in uncertainty. I describe the analytical approach and the key findings of the study, and conclude with a discussion of the study's impact on decision making in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ford, 1990. "Estimating the Impact of Efficiency Standards on the Uncertainty of the Northwest Electric System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 580-597, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:38:y:1990:i:4:p:580-597
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.38.4.580
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan N. Groesser, 2012. "Dynamics of Journal Impact Factors," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 624-644, November.
    2. Gary, Shayne & Larsen, Erik Reimer, 2000. "Improving firm performance in out-of-equilibrium, deregulated markets using feedback simulation models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 845-855, October.
    3. Saysel, Ali Kerem & Hekimoğlu, Mustafa, 2013. "Exploring the options for carbon dioxide mitigation in Turkish electric power industry: System dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 675-686.
    4. Neubauer, Franklin & Westman, Erik & Ford, Andrew, 1997. "Applying planning models to study new competition : Analysis for the Bonneville Power Administration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 273-280, February.
    5. Mustafa Hekimoğlu & Yaman Barlas & Luis Luna-Reyes, 2016. "Sensitivity analysis for models with multiple behavior modes: a method based on behavior pattern measures," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(3-4), pages 332-362, July.
    6. Ford, Andrew, 1999. "Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 637-658, October.
    7. Federico Cosenz & Guido Noto, 2016. "Applying System Dynamics Modelling to Strategic Management: A Literature Review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(6), pages 703-741, November.
    8. Isabel Banos-Gonzalez & Julia Martínez-Fernández & Miguel-Ángel Esteve-Selma & Patricia Esteve-Guirao, 2018. "Sensitivity Analysis in Socio-Ecological Models as a Tool in Environmental Policy for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-30, August.
    9. Matteo Pedercini & Steve Arquitt & Derek Chan, 2020. "Integrated simulation for the 2030 agenda†," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(3), pages 333-357, July.
    10. Erik Pruyt & Tushith Islam, 2015. "On generating and exploring the behavior space of complex models," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 31(4), pages 220-249, October.
    11. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard C. Larson, 2018. "SD meets OR: a new synergy to address policy problems," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 327-353, January.
    12. Bob Walrave, 2016. "Determining intervention thresholds that change output behavior patterns," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 32(3-4), pages 261-278, July.
    13. Koul, Saroj & Falebita, Oluwabunmi A. & Akinbami, John-Felix K. & Akarakiri, Joshua B., 2016. "System dynamics, uncertainty and hydrocarbon resources modelling: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 199-205.

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