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Informalidad, pobreza y consumo en México: Evidencia empírica entre 1993 y 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar de Jesús Gálvez-Soriano

    (University of Houston, USA)

  • Miguel Ramírez-Loyola

    (Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, México)

  • Dixia Vega Valdivia

    (Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, México)

Abstract

En este documento exploramos la relación entre informalidad, pobreza y "consumo predecible" en México. Partimos de un modelo macroeconómico con dos tipos de agentes para recuperar la serie de consumo predecible, que representa a los individuos que gastan todo su ingreso en cada periodo de tiempo. Estimamos el consumo predecible con un método de variables instrumentales para resolver el problema de simultaneidad entre consumo e ingreso. Utilizando esta serie, probamos la hipótesis de que los individuos con consumo predecible son personas en situación de pobreza o que trabajan en la informalidad. Nuestros resultados sugieren que algunas de las variaciones en el consumo predecible se deben a cambios en la pobreza. Este documento es el primero en analizar la heterogeneidad del consumo en México, mapeando su comportamiento con dos tipos de consumidores, de donde se concluye que una parte considerable del consumo privado (casi el 40%) es consistente con la hipótesis del ingreso permanente. Además, este artículo es el primero en documentar formalmente la fuerte relación entre pobreza e informalidad en México, lo que tiene importantes implicaciones de política económica.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar de Jesús Gálvez-Soriano & Miguel Ramírez-Loyola & Dixia Vega Valdivia, 2022. "Informalidad, pobreza y consumo en México: Evidencia empírica entre 1993 y 2019," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, Abril - J.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:2:a:6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variables instrumentales; Sector Informal; Consumo; Pobreza;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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