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La pandemia Covid-19, la crisis financiera y la dinámica (Overshooting) del tipo de cambio

Author

Listed:
  • Heri Oscar Landa Díaz

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • Verónica Cerezo García

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México)

Abstract

Nuestro objetivo es analizar la dinámica del tipo de cambio ante las políticas expansivas adoptadas por varios países para confrontar choques exógenos durante el periodo 2000:01-2020:03. Nuestros resultados, fundamentados en un modelo ARDL y funciones de impulso-respuesta, confirman la presencia de overshooting en Corea, México, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos. En Alemania, Japón y Brasil no encontramos evidencia de overshooting, probablemente debido al carácter semifijo del euro, la reprimarización de la economía brasileña y el estancamiento con deflación de Japón. Nuestra contribución original y conclusión más importante consiste en que las políticas expansivas para paliar la crisis financiera de 2007/08 y la inducida por el Covid-19 afectan la dinámica del tipo de cambio, lo cual implica efectos significativos en: la deuda externa, la hoja de balance de los sectores institucionales, la balanza de pagos y el crecimiento económico. Es recomendable que los gobiernos adopten medidas para contrapesar estos desequilibrios. Las limitaciones de nuestro estudio estriban en que, por ausencia de suficientes datos, no estimamos la magnitud del impacto del overshooting inducido por la pandemia en estas últimas variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Heri Oscar Landa Díaz & Verónica Cerezo García, 2021. "La pandemia Covid-19, la crisis financiera y la dinámica (Overshooting) del tipo de cambio," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:3:a:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; crisis financiera; tipo de cambio; overshooting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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