Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach
AbstractIn microsimulation literature a limited number of models include a module aimed at analyzing and projecting the evolution of private wealth over time. However, this issue appears crucial in order to comprehensively evaluate the likely distributional effects of institutional reforms adopted to cope with population ageing. In this work we describe the implementation in the Italian dynamic micro simulation model CAPP_DYN of a new module in which households’ savings and asset allocation are modelled. In particular, we aim to account for possible behavioural responses to pension reforms in household savings. To this end, we rely on an approximate life cycle structural framework for estimating saving behaviour, while adopting a traditional stochastic micro simulation approach for asset allocation. In line with Ando and Nicoletti Altimari (2004), we emphasize the role of lifetime economic resources in households’ consumption decisions, yet we further account for internal habit formation and subjective expectations on pension outcomes in the econometric stage. In addition, we model intergenerational transfers of private wealth in a probabilistic fashion. As the behavioural hypothesis adopted can largely affect results, we compare our semi-structural life-cycle approach with the estimation and the simulation of a non-structural consumption rule, analyzing wealth and disposable income dynamics and their drivers according to the two methods, especially in a long-term intergenerational perspective. While a 'quasi' life cycle consumption profile, including saving responses to pension reforms, curbs the dynamics of wealth inequality compared to the non-structural approach, results for the period 2010-2050 suggest an increasing contribution of intergenerational transfers to the predicted increase in wealth dispersion. Although hypotheses on (the mean of) returns are neutral for the evolution of net wealth inequality, the differential between returns and productivity (r-g) parameters are crucial in affecting the dynamics of disposable income due to cumulated effect on capital incomes shares.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Interational Microsimulation Association in its journal International Journal of Microsimulation.
Volume (Year): 6 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://ima.natsem.canberra.edu.au/index.htm
Household consumption; habit formation; pension expectations; social security; intergenerational transfers; income and wealth distribution; microsimulation;
Other versions of this item:
- Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano & Elena Pisano & Simone Tedeschi, 2010. "Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0073, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica, revised Nov 2010.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005.
"Estimating Life—Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement”,"
wp099, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005. "Estimating Life-Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 11163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2008.
"The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data,"
563, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2008. "The Retirement Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 13929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Giovanni D'Alessio & Ivan Faiella, 2002. "Non-response behaviour in the Bank of ItalyÂ’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 462, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gijs Dekkers).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.