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On Evaluating the Importance of Nonlinearity in Large Macroeconometric Models

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  • Fisher, Paul
  • Salmon, Mark

Abstract

Most model builders continue to treat their models as deterministic when forecasting, despite the fact that these models are composed of equations which are stochastic in nature. Deterministic solution methods ignore the stochastic information on the model structure and in addition produce biased forecasts in non-linear models. It is therefore important to investigate whether a given model is significantly non-linear. After commenting on the poor simulation methodology employed in a number of earlier studies, we find significant non-linear effects in two large macro models of the United Kingdom economy. This is confirmed by two tests that we propose for assessing the importance of non-linearity in such models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 27 (1986)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 625-46

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:27:y:1986:i:3:p:625-46

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Cited by:
  1. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
  2. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1987. "Forecast variance in simultaneous equation models: analytic and Monte Carlo methods," MPRA Paper 24541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Jaime Marquez & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Paper 61, National Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1988. "Il problema della coerenza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici non lineari
    [The coherency problem when forecasting with nonlinear econometric models]
    ," MPRA Paper 23904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1988. "Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities," MPRA Paper 28845, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Filippo Altissimo & Alberto Locarno & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "Dealing with forward-looking expectations and policy rules in quantifying the channels of transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. McAdam, Peter & Mestre, Ricardo, 2008. "Evaluating macro-economic models in the frequency domain: A note," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1137-1143, November.
  9. Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1986. "Coherent optimal prediction with large nonlinear systems: an example based on a French model," MPRA Paper 29057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici
    [Forecast variance in econometric models]
    ," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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