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Estimating the Optimal Time for a Road Concession Contract in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas Pivatto
  • Rodrigo Nobre Fernandez
  • Helton Saulo
  • Andre Carraro

Abstract

Brazil has one of the largest road networks managed under concession contracts in the world. The concessions of the Federal Concession Program are divided into three stages. The main aim of this research was to identify critical successful contracts from the Third Stage of the Concession Program. The methodology adopted follows the model proposed by Ng et al. (2007). This model verifies the probability at which the project will be successfully run within the term contract. The results showed a discrepancy between the time contractually agreed and the one simulated by the model for two of the seven contracts signed in the Third Stage of the Concession Program.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Pivatto & Rodrigo Nobre Fernandez & Helton Saulo & Andre Carraro, 2017. "Estimating the Optimal Time for a Road Concession Contract in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(12), pages 44-53, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:44-53
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Armando Castelar Pinheiro, 2015. "Regulatory Reform in Brazilian Infrastructure: Where Do We Stand?," Discussion Papers 0123, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Zhang, Zitao (Arthur) & Durango-Cohen, Pablo L., 2012. "A strategic model of public–private partnerships in transportation: Effect of taxes and cost structure on investment viability," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 9-18.
    3. Beria, Paolo & Ramella, Francesco & Laurino, Antonio, 2015. "Motorways economic regulation: A worldwide survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 23-32.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    project analysis; road concessions; project simulation; transport economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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