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International Evidence on Market Linkages After the 2008 Stock Market Crash

Author

Listed:
  • Gulser Meric
  • Christine Lentz
  • Wayne Smeltz
  • Ilhan Meric

Abstract

The 2008 crash was the most important global stock market crash in history since the Great Depression. In this paper, we study the contemporaneous co-movements of and the time-series lead/lag linkages between global stock markets after the 2008 stock market crash by using the time-varying correlation analysis, principal components analysis (PCA), and Granger-causality (G-C) statistical techniques. We find that correlation between global stock markets has increased and the benefit of global portfolio diversification has decreased since the 2008 stock market crash. The PCA technique can group global stock markets in terms of the similarities in their contemporaneous movements. Global investors can maximize the portfolio diversification benefit by investing in stock markets with high factor loadings in different principal components. Our PCA results indicate that all Asian stock markets, except the Japanese stock market, are lumped together in one principal component and the stock markets in the rest of the world are lumped together in another principal component. Our G-C test results show that the U.S. stock market has substantial influence on the European and Australasian stock markets. U.S. stock returns lead the European and Australasian stock returns (i.e., the past returns of the U.S. stock market can predict the future returns of the European and Australasian stock markets).

Suggested Citation

  • Gulser Meric & Christine Lentz & Wayne Smeltz & Ilhan Meric, 2012. "International Evidence on Market Linkages After the 2008 Stock Market Crash," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(4), pages 45-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibf:ijbfre:v:6:y:2012:i:4:p:45-57
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    6. Wang, Jia & Meric, Gulser & Liu, Zugang & Meric, Ilhan, 2009. "Stock market crashes, firm characteristics, and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1563-1574, September.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Deterministic Elements of Japanese Stock Prices under Low Interest Rates," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(2), pages 24-30, April.
    3. Ye Zhao & Xiang Zhang & Feng Xiong & Shuying Liu & Yao Wang & Changmei Liang, 2022. "Acquisition of rainfall in ungauged basins: a study of rainfall distribution heterogeneity based on a new method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1723-1739, November.
    4. Amalendu Bhunia & Devrim Yaman, 2017. "Is There a Causal Relationship Between Financial Markets in Asia and the US?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, Jan-June.
    5. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    6. Kübra Akca & Serda Selin Ozturk, 2016. "The Effect of 2008 Crisis on the Volatility Spillovers among Six Major Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 169-178, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    2008 Stock Market Crash; Global Stock Market Linkages; Global Portfolio Diversification; Time-Varying Correlation; Principal Components Analysis; Granger Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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