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A Comparative Analysis of the Predictive Abilities of Economic Complexity Metrics Using International Trade Network

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  • Hao Liao
  • Alexandre Vidmer

Abstract

The complex networks approach has proven to be an effective tool to understand and predict the evolution of a wide range of complex systems. In this work, we consider the network representing the exchange of goods between countries: the international trade network. According to the type of goods they export, the complex networks approach allows inferring which countries will have a bigger growth compared to others. The aim of this work is to study three different methods characterizing the complex networks and study their behaviour on two main topics. Can the method predict the economic evolution of a country? What happens to those methods when we merge the economies?

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Liao & Alexandre Vidmer, 2018. "A Comparative Analysis of the Predictive Abilities of Economic Complexity Metrics Using International Trade Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:2825948
    DOI: 10.1155/2018/2825948
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hao Liao & Xiao-Min Huang & Xing-Tong Wu & Ming-Kai Liu & Alexandre Vidmer & Ming-Yang Zhou & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2018. "Enhancing Countries’ Fitness with Recommender Systems on the International Trade Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-12, October.
    2. Hao Liao & Xiao-Min Huang & Xing-Tong Wu & Ming-Kai Liu & Alexandre Vidmer & Mingyang Zhou & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2019. "Enhancing countries' fitness with recommender systems on the international trade network," Papers 1904.02412, arXiv.org.
    3. Ming-Yang Zhou & Xiao-Yu Li & Wen-Man Xiong & Hao Liao, 2018. "Quantifying the Robustness of Countries’ Competitiveness by Network-Based Methods," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, December.
    4. Orazio Angelini & Tiziana Di Matteo, 2018. "Complexity of products: the effect of data regularisation," Papers 1808.08249, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.

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