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Forecast errors in prices and wages: the experience with three programme countries

Author

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  • Francisco José Veiga

    (Universidade do Minho e NIPE)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the accuracy of price and wage forecasts made under the scope of the Greek, Portuguese and Irish Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs). Besides comparing the quality of forecasts for the three EAPs, it checks if they were less accurate than forecasts for other euro area countries, and compares the European Commission’s forecasts with those of the IMF and OECD. Programme forecasts for Greece were, overall, the least accurate, but those made under the second Greek EAP seem to have gotten closer to actual values. The results also suggest that EC forecasts were not less accurate than those produced by the IMF or the OECD.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco José Veiga, 2017. "Forecast errors in prices and wages: the experience with three programme countries," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 44, pages 3-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2017:i:44:p:1:19
    DOI: 10.14195/2183-203X_44_1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecast errors; Prices and wages; Economic Adjustment Programmes; Greece; Portugal; Ireland.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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