IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2022i1p296-d1013975.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust Wavelet Transform Neural-Network-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Power Distribution Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Yijun Wang

    (Shenzhen Power Supply Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518020, China)

  • Peiqian Guo

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Nan Ma

    (Shenzhen Power Supply Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518020, China)

  • Guowei Liu

    (Shenzhen Power Supply Co., Ltd., Shenzhen 518020, China)

Abstract

A precise short-term load-forecasting model is vital for energy companies to create accurate supply plans to reduce carbon dioxide production, causing our lives to be more environmentally friendly. A variety of high-voltage-level load-forecasting approaches, such as linear regression (LR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and artificial neural network (ANN) models, have been proposed in recent decades. However, unlike load forecasting in high-voltage transmission systems, load forecasting at the distribution network level is more challenging since distribution networks are more variable and nonstationary. Moreover, existing load-forecasting models only consider the features of the time domain, while the demand load is highly correlated to the frequency-domain information. This paper introduces a robust wavelet transform neural network load-forecasting model. The proposed model utilizes both time- and frequency-domain information to improve the model’s prediction accuracy. Firstly, three wavelet transform methods, variational mode decomposition (VMD), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and empirical wavelet transformation (EWT), were introduced to transform the time-domain demand load data into frequency-domain data. Then, neural network models were trained to predict all components simultaneously. Finally, all the predicted data were aggregated to form the predicted demand load. Three cases were simulated in the case study stage to evaluate the prediction accuracy under different layer numbers, weather information, and neural network types. The simulation results showed that the proposed robust time–frequency load-forecasting model performed better than the traditional time-domain forecasting models based on the comparison of the performance metrics, including the mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).

Suggested Citation

  • Yijun Wang & Peiqian Guo & Nan Ma & Guowei Liu, 2022. "Robust Wavelet Transform Neural-Network-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Power Distribution Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2022:i:1:p:296-:d:1013975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/296/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/296/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huiting Zheng & Jiabin Yuan & Long Chen, 2017. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD-LSTM Neural Networks with a Xgboost Algorithm for Feature Importance Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Miguel López & Carlos Sans & Sergio Valero & Carolina Senabre, 2018. "Empirical Comparison of Neural Network and Auto-Regressive Models in Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Imani, Maryam, 2021. "Electrical load-temperature CNN for residential load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    4. Aoqi Xu & Man-Wen Tian & Behnam Firouzi & Khalid A. Alattas & Ardashir Mohammadzadeh & Ebrahim Ghaderpour, 2022. "A New Deep Learning Restricted Boltzmann Machine for Energy Consumption Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Seon Hyeog Kim & Gyul Lee & Gu-Young Kwon & Do-In Kim & Yong-June Shin, 2018. "Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Xiaoyu Shi & Xuewen Lei & Qiang Huang & Shengzhi Huang & Kun Ren & Yuanyuan Hu, 2018. "Hourly Day-Ahead Wind Power Prediction Using the Hybrid Model of Variational Model Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfredo Candela Esclapez & Miguel López García & Sergio Valero Verdú & Carolina Senabre Blanes, 2022. "Automatic Selection of Temperature Variables for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Mingping Liu & Xihao Sun & Qingnian Wang & Suhui Deng, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD with Feature Selection and TCN-Based Deep Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Bingjie Jin & Guihua Zeng & Zhilin Lu & Hongqiao Peng & Shuxin Luo & Xinhe Yang & Haojun Zhu & Mingbo Liu, 2022. "Hybrid LSTM–BPNN-to-BPNN Model Considering Multi-Source Information for Forecasting Medium- and Long-Term Electricity Peak Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Sumit Saroha & Marta Zurek-Mortka & Jerzy Ryszard Szymanski & Vineet Shekher & Pardeep Singla, 2021. "Forecasting of Market Clearing Volume Using Wavelet Packet-Based Neural Networks with Tracking Signals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Jiaan Zhang & Chenyu Liu & Leijiao Ge, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Model of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Based on MCCNN-TCN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
    6. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    8. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Wei, Nan & Li, Changjun & Peng, Xiaolong & Li, Yang & Zeng, Fanhua, 2019. "Daily natural gas consumption forecasting via the application of a novel hybrid model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 358-368.
    10. Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    11. Abdulelah Alkesaiberi & Fouzi Harrou & Ying Sun, 2022. "Efficient Wind Power Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Alexandros Menelaos Tzortzis & Sotiris Pelekis & Evangelos Spiliotis & Evangelos Karakolis & Spiros Mouzakitis & John Psarras & Dimitris Askounis, 2023. "Transfer Learning for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: A Case Study on European National Electricity Demand Time Series," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Kaiyan Wang & Xueyan Wang & Rong Jia & Jian Dang & Yan Liang & Haodong Du, 2022. "Research on Coupled Cooperative Operation of Medium- and Long-Term and Spot Electricity Transaction for Multi-Energy System: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Luyu Ding & Yang Lv & Ruixiang Jiang & Wenjie Zhao & Qifeng Li & Baozhu Yang & Ligen Yu & Weihong Ma & Ronghua Gao & Qinyang Yu, 2022. "Predicting the Feed Intake of Cattle Based on Jaw Movement Using a Triaxial Accelerometer," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, June.
    15. Zheng Wan & Hui Li, 2023. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Feature Filtering and Error Compensation under Imbalanced Samples," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-22, May.
    16. Lu, Shixiang & Xu, Qifa & Jiang, Cuixia & Liu, Yezheng & Kusiak, Andrew, 2022. "Probabilistic load forecasting with a non-crossing sparse-group Lasso-quantile regression deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    17. Xiaosheng Peng & Kai Cheng & Jianxun Lang & Zuowei Zhang & Tao Cai & Shanxu Duan, 2021. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction for Wind Farm Clusters Based on SFFS Feature Selection and BLSTM Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.
    19. Tianao Wu & Wei Zhang & Xiyun Jiao & Weihua Guo & Yousef Alhaj Hamoud, 2020. "Comparison of five Boosting-based models for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration with limited meteorological variables," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Federico Divina & Aude Gilson & Francisco Goméz-Vela & Miguel García Torres & José F. Torres, 2018. "Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-31, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2022:i:1:p:296-:d:1013975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.