IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i6p3029-d514251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Debashis Nath

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
    Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Keerthi Sasikumar

    (Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Reshmita Nath

    (School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China
    Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

  • Wen Chen

    (Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    Institute of Atmospheric Physics, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious threat to global health system and economy. It was first reported in Wuhan, China, and later appeared in Central Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. The spatial COVID-19 distribution pattern highly resembles the global population distribution and international travel routes. We select 48 cities in 16 countries across 4 continents having infection counts higher than 10,000 (by 25 April 2020) as the COVID-19 epicenters. At the initial stage, daily COVID-19 counts co-varies strongly with local temperature and humidity, which are clustered within 0–10 °C and 70–95%, respectively. Later, it spreads in colder (−15 °C) and warmer (25 °C) countries, due to faster adaptability in diverse environmental conditions. We introduce a combined temperature-humidity profile, which is essential for prediction of COVID-19 cases based on environmental conditions. The COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on global CO 2 emission hotspots and its distribution maximizes at 7.49 °C, which is 1.35 °C/2.44 °C higher than current (2020)/historical (1961–1990) mean. Approximately 75% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe-extreme end of historical temperature distribution spectrum, which establish its tighter and possible association with extreme climate change. A strong mitigation measure is essential to abate the GHG emissions, which may reduce the probability of such pandemics in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Debashis Nath & Keerthi Sasikumar & Reshmita Nath & Wen Chen, 2021. "Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:6:p:3029-:d:514251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3029/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/6/3029/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toph Allen & Kris A. Murray & Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio & Stephen S. Morse & Carlo Rondinini & Moreno Di Marco & Nathan Breit & Kevin J. Olival & Peter Daszak, 2017. "Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific," Working Papers id:11878, eSocialSciences.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keyong Lin & S. Nurmaya Musa & Hwa Jen Yap, 2022. "Vehicle Routing Optimization for Pandemic Containment: A Systematic Review on Applications and Solution Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-27, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin Zhang & Jason Rohr & Ruina Cui & Yusi Xin & Lixia Han & Xiaona Yang & Shimin Gu & Yuanbao Du & Jing Liang & Xuyu Wang & Zhengjun Wu & Qin Hao & Xuan Liu, 2022. "Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Matthew Gandy, 2023. "Zoonotic urbanisation: multispecies urbanism and the rescaling of urban epidemiology," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(13), pages 2529-2549, October.
    3. Sandu, Suwin & Yang, Muyi & Phoumin, Han & Aghdam, Reza Fathollahzadeh & Shi, Xunpeng, 2021. "Assessment of accessible, clean and efficient energy systems: A statistical analysis of composite energy performance indices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Jeffrey Hadachek & Meilin Ma & Richard J. Sexton, 2024. "Market structure and resilience of food supply chains under extreme events," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(1), pages 21-44, January.
    5. Connie B. Dacuycuy, 2019. "Energy consumption, weather fluctuation, and household composition in the Philippines," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 380-394.
    6. Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy & Lora Kryz Baje, 2019. "When It Rains, It Pours? Analyzing the Rainfall Shocks-Poverty Nexus in the Philippines," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 67-93, August.
    7. Reaser, Jamie & Tabor, Gary M. & Becker, Daniel & Muruthi, Philip & Witt, Arne & Woodley, Stephen J. & Ruiz-Aravena, Manuel & Patz, Jonathan Alan MD, MPH & Hickey, Valerie & Hudson, Peter, 2020. "Land use-induced spillover: priority actions for protected and conserved area managers," EcoEvoRxiv bmfhw, Center for Open Science.
    8. James McNamara & Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson & Katharine Abernethy & Donald Midoko Iponga & Hannah N. K. Sackey & Juliet H. Wright & EJ Milner-Gulland, 2020. "COVID-19, Systemic Crisis, and Possible Implications for the Wild Meat Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1045-1066, August.
    9. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8016, CESifo.
    10. Heidi J. Albers & Katherine D. Lee & Jennifer R. Rushlow & Carlos Zambrana-Torrselio, 2020. "Disease Risk from Human–Environment Interactions: Environment and Development Economics for Joint Conservation-Health Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 929-944, August.
    11. Giovanni Ferri & Raffaele Lagravinese & Giuliano Resce, 2021. "Did the COVID-19 Shock Impair the Stock Performance of Companies with Older CEOs?," SERIES 02-2021, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Jun 2021.
    12. Naughtin, Claire & Hajkowicz, Stefan & Schleiger, Emma & Bratanova, Alexandra & Cameron, Alicia & Zamin, T & Dutta, A, 2022. "Our Future World: Global megatrends impacting the way we live over coming decades," MPRA Paper 113900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Bratanova, Alexandra & Schleiger, Emma & Brosnan, A, 2020. "Global trade and investment megatrends," MPRA Paper 113240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Naim Laeni & Margo van den Brink & Tim Busscher & Henk Ovink & Jos Arts, 2020. "Building Local Institutional Capacities for Urban Flood Adaptation: Lessons from the Water as Leverage Program in Semarang, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Choudhury, Pranab R. & Ghosh, Ranjan K. & Sindhi, Sumita, 2020. "Covid-19 Crisis, Pandemic Resilience and Linkages to Land: An Exposition," IIMA Working Papers WP 2020-05-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    16. Victor Narat & Maud Salmona & Mamadou Kampo & Thibaut Heyer & Abdeljalil Senhaji Rachik & Severine Mercier-Delarue & Noémie Ranger & Stephanie Rupp & Philippe Ambata & Richard Njouom & François Simon , 2023. "Higher convergence of human-great ape enteric eukaryotic viromes in central African forest than in a European zoo: a One Health analysis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Georgios Tsantopoulos & Aristotelis C. Papageorgiou & Evangelia Karasmanaki, 2021. "COVID-19: An Outcome of Biodiversity Loss or a Conspiracy? Investigating the Attitudes of Environmental Students," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    18. Juan Armando Torres Munguía & Florina Cristina Badarau & Luis Rodrigo Díaz Pavez & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2022. "A global dataset of pandemic- and epidemic-prone disease outbreaks," Post-Print hal-04029973, HAL.
    19. Xinlu XIE & Yan ZHENG & Jiahua PAN & Hongjian ZHOU, 2018. "Urban Vulnerability and Adaptability to Climate Change: A Case Study of Cities in the Yangtze River Delta," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Jan-Erik Lane & Florent Dieterlen, 2017. "Climate change in Asia and the Pacific: challenges and perspectives," Asia Pacific Journal of Public Administration, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 287-296, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:6:p:3029-:d:514251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.