IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i2p785-d480634.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Tourist Systems Predictive Models Applied to Growing Sun and Beach Tourist Destination

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Angel Ruiz Palacios

    (Departament of Business, North Lima Campus, Universidad César Vallejo, Lima 15314, Peru
    Faculty of Business Studies, Universidad Privada del Norte, Lima 15314, Peru)

  • Cristiana Pereira Texeira de Oliveira

    (General Director and Rector, Universidad Europea de Canarias, 38300 Tenerife, Spain)

  • José Serrano González

    (Departament of Social Sciences, Universidad Europea de Canarias, 38300 Tenerife, Spain)

  • Soledad Saénz Flores

    (School of Administration in Tourism and Hospitality, North Lima Campus, Universidad César Vallejo, Lima 15314, Peru)

Abstract

This study aims to present a new diagnosis model of Sun and beach destinations, we analyzed a set of explanatory theories about the tourism system, because current models do not reflect the real dynamics of an emerging tourist destination. We create a new predictive model so it served us to be used as a diagnostic method for the tourism system. Ancon district is a coastal town of Peru, it is the second-largest and oldest of Metropolitan Lima district. The study analyzed all tourist attractions and local resources including reserved zone Lomas de Ancón, with 10,962 hectares. It used a qualitative method and its design is grounded theory and phenomenological. The research covers the period from May 2018 to March 2019, where it was possible to appreciate the high tourist demand and wild flora and fauna of the Lomas de Ancón in its two seasons: winter season (2018) and summer 2019 (dry season). The study concludes that the new analysis model allows us identifying and understanding the dynamic and potential of sun and beach tourist destinations in the growth phase. The Ancón district has resources and attractions that would allow it to develop new tourist products and diversify the local tourist offer.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Angel Ruiz Palacios & Cristiana Pereira Texeira de Oliveira & José Serrano González & Soledad Saénz Flores, 2021. "Analysis of Tourist Systems Predictive Models Applied to Growing Sun and Beach Tourist Destination," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:785-:d:480634
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/2/785/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/2/785/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucian Marina, 2015. "Cultural Participation And Touristic Valorisation Of The Local Cultural Heritage," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(17), pages 1-5.
    2. José Álvarez-García & Claudia Patricia Maldonado-Erazo & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & Francisco Javier Castellano-Álvarez, 2019. "Cultural Heritage and Tourism Basis for Regional Development: Mapping of Scientific Coverage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Divino, Jose Angelo & McAleer, Michael, 2010. "Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 846-854.
    4. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Yeongbae Choe & Hany Kim & Hyo-Jae Joun, 2019. "Differences in Tourist Behaviors across the Seasons: The Case of Northern Indiana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Alan Voorhees, 2013. "A general theory of traffic movement," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1105-1116, November.
    7. María Magdalena Solís-Radilla & Lucio Hernández-Lobato & Luis Jose Callarisa-Fiol & Héctor T. Pastor-Durán, 2019. "The Importance of Sustainability in the Loyalty to a Tourist Destination through the Management of Expectations and Experiences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, July.
    8. Sigbjorn Tveteras & Kristin H. Roll, 2014. "Non-Stop Flights and Tourist Arrivals," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 5-20, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan Diego López-Arquillo & Cristiana Oliveira & Jose Serrano González & Amador Durán Sánchez, 2023. "Interdependence in Coastal Tourist Territories between Marine Litter and Immediate Tourist Zoning Density: Methodological Approach for Urban Sustainable Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Víctor Hugo Fernández-Bedoya & Monica Elisa Meneses-La-Riva & Josefina Amanda Suyo-Vega & Johanna de Jesús Stephanie Gago-Chávez, 2023. "Entrepreneurship Research in Times of COVID-19: Experiences from South America," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Jessie Bravo & Roger Alarcón & Carlos Valdivia & Oscar Serquén, 2023. "Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Predict Visitors to the Tourist Attractions of the Moche Route in Peru," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-25, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian-Wu Bi & Tian-Yu Han & Yanbo Yao, 2024. "Collaborative forecasting of tourism demand for multiple tourist attractions with spatial dependence: A combined deep learning model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(2), pages 361-388, March.
    2. MATSUURA Toshiyuki & SAITO Hisamitsu, 2021. "Designing a Tourism Stimulus During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan," Discussion papers 21012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Zhou, Bo & Zhang, Ying & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "Multilateral political effects on outbound tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2009. "Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Voatility for Korea and Taiwan," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 241-267.
    6. Rinshu Dwivedi & Jalandhar Pradhan & Ramesh Athe, 2021. "Measuring catastrophe in paying for healthcare: A comparative methodological approach by using National Sample Survey, India," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1887-1915, September.
    7. Michael McAleer, 2015. "The Fundamental Equation in Tourism Finance," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-6, December.
    8. Shreyas Gadgin Matha & Patricio Goldstein & Jessie Lu, 2020. "Air Transportation and Regional Economic Development: A Case Study for the New Airport in South Albania," CID Working Papers 127a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Khusen Ibragimov & José Perles-Ribes & Ana Ramón-Rodríguez, 2022. "The impact of governance quality on inbound tourism demand of Central Asia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 1050-1061.
    10. Gu, Xinhua & Wu, Jie & Guo, Haizhen & Li, Guoqiang, 2018. "Local tourism cycle and external business cycle," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-170.
    11. Kiyoyasu Tanaka, 2019. "Do international flights promote FDI? The role of face‐to‐face communication," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1609-1632, November.
    12. María Santana-Gallego & Johan Fourie, 2022. "Tourism falls apart: How insecurity affects African tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 995-1008, June.
    13. Balli, Hatice Ozer & Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Balli, Faruk, 2019. "Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 204-214.
    14. Miguel Ángel Moliner-Tena & Diego Monferrer-Tirado & Juan Bautista Ferreres-Bonfill & Rosa M. Rodríguez-Artola, 2021. "Destination Sustainability and Memorable Tourism Experiences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-12, October.
    15. Miguel Orden-Mejía & Mauricio Carvache-Franco & Assumpció Huertas & Wilmer Carvache-Franco & Nathalie Landeta-Bejarano & Orly Carvache-Franco, 2022. "Post-COVID-19 Tourists’ Preferences, Attitudes and Travel Expectations: A Study in Guayaquil, Ecuador," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-17, April.
    16. Fernando Borrajo-Millán & María-del-Mar Alonso-Almeida & María Escat-Cortes & Liu Yi, 2021. "Sentiment Analysis to Measure Quality and Build Sustainability in Tourism Destinations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-14, May.
    17. Vanessa Hellwig, 2023. "Digital gravity? Firm birth and relocation patterns of young digital firms in Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 340-378, March.
    18. Katrin Oesingmann, 2022. "The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements: An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2370-2393, August.
    19. Luke Emeka Okafor & Usman Khalid, 2021. "Regaining international tourism attractiveness after an armed conflict: the role of security spending," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 385-402, February.
    20. Sofia Gomes & João M. Lopes, 2023. "Insights for Pro-Sustainable Tourist Behavior: The Role of Sustainable Destination Information and Pro-Sustainable Tourist Habits," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:785-:d:480634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.