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DeepTriangle: A Deep Learning Approach to Loss Reserving

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  • Kevin Kuo

    (Kasa AI, 3040 78th Ave SE #1271, Mercer Island, WA 98040, USA)

Abstract

We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving data across lines of business, and show that they improve on the predictive accuracy of existing stochastic methods. The models require minimal feature engineering and expert input, and can be automated to produce forecasts more frequently than manual workflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Kuo, 2019. "DeepTriangle: A Deep Learning Approach to Loss Reserving," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:7:y:2019:i:3:p:97-:d:267719
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kris Peremans & Stefan Van Aelst & Tim Verdonck, 2018. "A Robust General Multivariate Chain Ladder Method," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Nataliya Chukhrova & Arne Johannssen, 2017. "State Space Models and the K alman -Filter in Stochastic Claims Reserving: Forecasting, Filtering and Smoothing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Mack, Thomas, 1993. "Distribution-free Calculation of the Standard Error of Chain Ladder Reserve Estimates," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 213-225, November.
    4. England, P.D. & Verrall, R.J., 2002. "Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 443-518, August.
    5. Andrea Gabrielli & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2018. "An Individual Claims History Simulation Machine," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, March.
    6. László Martinek, 2019. "Analysis of Stochastic Reserving Models By Means of NAIC Claims Data," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-27, June.
    7. Miranda, María Dolores Martínez & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Verrall, Richard, 2012. "Double Chain Ladder," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 59-76, May.
    8. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2016. "Stochastic loss reserving with dependence: A flexible multivariate Tweedie approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 63-78.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Łukasz Delong & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2020. "Neural Networks for the Joint Development of Individual Payments and Claim Incurred," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    2. Stephan M. Bischofberger, 2020. "In-Sample Hazard Forecasting Based on Survival Models with Operational Time," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Benjamin Avanzi & Yanfeng Li & Bernard Wong & Alan Xian, 2022. "Ensemble distributional forecasting for insurance loss reserving," Papers 2206.08541, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    4. Muhammed Taher Al-Mudafer & Benjamin Avanzi & Greg Taylor & Bernard Wong, 2021. "Stochastic loss reserving with mixture density neural networks," Papers 2108.07924, arXiv.org.
    5. Greg Taylor, 2019. "Risks Special Issue on “Granular Models and Machine Learning Models”," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-2, December.
    6. Xu, Shuzhe & Zhang, Chuanlong & Hong, Don, 2022. "BERT-based NLP techniques for classification and severity modeling in basic warranty data study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 57-67.
    7. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wang, Melantha & Wong, Bernard, 2021. "SynthETIC: An individual insurance claim simulator with feature control," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 296-308.
    8. Kevin Kuo & Daniel Lupton, 2020. "Towards Explainability of Machine Learning Models in Insurance Pricing," Papers 2003.10674, arXiv.org.
    9. Simon CK Lee, 2020. "Delta Boosting Implementation of Negative Binomial Regression in Actuarial Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Valandis Elpidorou & Carolin Margraf & María Dolores Martínez-Miranda & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "A Likelihood Approach to Bornhuetter–Ferguson Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, December.

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