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Analysis of Spatiotemporal Transmission Characteristics of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Mainland China

Author

Listed:
  • Xin Pei

    (School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technolog, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Mingtao Li

    (School of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technolog, Taiyuan 030024, China)

  • Jianghong Hu

    (Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)

  • Juan Zhang

    (Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)

  • Zhen Jin

    (Complex System Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)

Abstract

In view of the rapid spread of African swine fever in Mainland China from 2018 to 2019, we used spatiotemporal statistical analysis methods to study the spatiotemporal transmission features of African swine fever. The results reveal that the hot spots of African swine fever were concentrated in some cities in Northeast and Southwest China. Seven spatiotemporal clusters of African swine fever were identified, and the most likely spatiotemporal cluster was located in the Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture of QianNan in Guizhou Province, and the cluster date was from 19 June to 25 June 2019. The first secondary cluster covered five cities (Shenyang, Yingkou, Panjin, Anshan, and Liaoyang) in Liaoning Province from 1 August to 10 October 2018. In addition, from the global and local transmission direction and speed of African swine fever in Mainland China, the spatial transmission speed of ASF was found to be slow from August to October 2018, and fast from February to March 2019. Lastly, the global and local isolation and exposure of sites infected with ASF were calculated in Mainland China to reveal the infection risk of different susceptible sites and time periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Pei & Mingtao Li & Jianghong Hu & Juan Zhang & Zhen Jin, 2022. "Analysis of Spatiotemporal Transmission Characteristics of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Mainland China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:24:p:4709-:d:1000497
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qihui Shao & Rendong Li & Yifei Han & Dongfeng Han & Juan Qiu, 2022. "Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the African Swine Fever Epidemic in Vietnam," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-13, June.
    2. Arthur Getis & J. Keith Ord, 2010. "The Analysis of Spatial Association by Use of Distance Statistics," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Perspectives on Spatial Data Analysis, chapter 0, pages 127-145, Springer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhaohui Yan & Mingli Wang & Xujun Li & Hui Jiang, 2023. "Impact of African Swine Fever Epidemic on the Cost Intensity of Pork Production in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, February.

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