IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i1p50-d1034318.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 Pandemic & Financial Market Volatility; Evidence from GARCH Models

Author

Listed:
  • Maaz Khan

    (Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan)

  • Umar Nawaz Kayani

    (College of Business, Al Ain University, Abu Dhabi P.O. Box 122612, United Arab Emirates)

  • Mrestyal Khan

    (Department of Management Sciences, Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering & Management Sciences (BUITEMS), Quetta 87300, Pakistan)

  • Khurrum Shahzad Mughal

    (Islamabad Policy Research Institute—IPRI, Islamabad 45710, Pakistan)

  • Mohammad Haseeb

    (China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning, and Center for Industrial Economics, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

Abstract

Across the globe, COVID-19 has disrupted the financial markets, making them more volatile. Thus, this paper examines the market volatility and asymmetric behavior of Bitcoin, EUR, S&P 500 index, Gold, Crude Oil, and Sugar during the COVID-19 pandemic. We applied the GARCH (1, 1), GJR-GARCH (1, 1), and EGARCH (1, 1) econometric models on the daily time series returns data ranging from 27 November 2018 to 15 June 2021. The empirical findings show a high level of volatility persistence in all the financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the Crude Oil and S&P 500 index shows significant positive asymmetric behavior during the pandemic. Apart from this, the results also reveal that EGARCH is the most appropriate model to capture the volatilities of the financial markets before the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas during the COVID-19 period and for the whole period, each GARCH family evenly models the volatile behavior of the six financial markets. This study provides financial investors and policymakers with useful insight into adopting effective strategies for constructing portfolios during crises in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Maaz Khan & Umar Nawaz Kayani & Mrestyal Khan & Khurrum Shahzad Mughal & Mohammad Haseeb, 2023. "COVID-19 Pandemic & Financial Market Volatility; Evidence from GARCH Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:50-:d:1034318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/1/50/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/1/50/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    2. Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko, 2020. "Regression Approach for Modeling COVID-19 Spread and its Impact On Stock Market," Papers 2004.01489, arXiv.org.
    3. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    4. Ali, Mohsin & Alam, Nafis & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) — An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Expected Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 707-735, June.
    6. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
    7. Mei, Dexiang & Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Chen, Wang, 2017. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Do realized skewness and kurtosis help?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 153-159.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Klein, Tony & Pham Thu, Hien & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Bitcoin is not the New Gold – A comparison of volatility, correlation, and portfolio performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 105-116.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    11. Brooks, Chris & Rew, Alistair G, 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Process Exhibiting a Structural Break in the Presence of GARCH Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(3), pages 157-176, December.
    12. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    13. Conlon, Thomas & McGee, Richard, 2020. "Safe haven or risky hazard? Bitcoin during the Covid-19 bear market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    14. Birru, Justin & Young, Trevor, 2020. "Sentiment and Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2020-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    15. HaiYue Liu & Aqsa Manzoor & CangYu Wang & Lei Zhang & Zaira Manzoor, 2020. "The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, April.
    16. Mrestyal Khan & Maaz Khan, 2021. "Cryptomarket Volatility in Times of COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of GARCH Models," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 170-181, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lihua Liu & Yuping Chen & Wei Li & Yanfang Zeng & Mingshui Lin, 2023. "Research on Industry Transformation Models and Influencing Factors of Hot Spring Villages from the Perspective of Sustainable Development: A Case Study of Fujian, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iqbal, Najaf & Fareed, Zeeshan & Wan, Guangcai & Shahzad, Farrukh, 2021. "Asymmetric nexus between COVID-19 outbreak in the world and cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Herjuna Qobush Izzahdi & Ani Wilujeng Suryani, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination, Government Strict Policy and Capital Market Volatility: Evidence from ASEAN Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 117-135.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Gold and US sectoral stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "How Vulnerable Are Financial Markets to COVID-19? A Comparative Study of the US and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    6. Tomás Gómez Rodríguez & Humberto Ríos Bolívar & Adriana Zambrano Reyes, 2021. "Volatilidad y COVID-19: evidencia empírica internacional," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, Julio - S.
    7. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and contagion between energy sector and financial assets during COVID-19 crisis period," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 449-467, September.
    8. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
    9. Syuhada, Khreshna & Hakim, Arief & Suprijanto, Djoko & Muchtadi-Alamsyah, Intan & Arbi, Lukman, 2022. "Is Tether a safe haven of safe haven amid COVID-19? An assessment against Bitcoin and oil using improved measures of risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Fatih GÜZEL & Melek ACAR, 2021. "The effects of epidemics on capital markets volatility: A case study of Borsa Istanbul," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13(1), pages 50-70, May.
    11. Bentes, Sónia R., 2022. "On the stylized facts of precious metals’ volatility: A comparative analysis of pre- and during COVID-19 crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    12. Li, Cong & Lin, Shiwei & Sun, Yihan & Afshan, Sahar & Yaqoob, Tanzeela, 2022. "The asymmetric effect of oil price, news-based uncertainty, and COVID-19 pandemic on equity market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Co-movement of COVID-19 and Bitcoin: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    14. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    15. Osman Taylan & Abdulaziz S. Alkabaa & Mustafa Tahsin Yılmaz, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on G20 countries: analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    17. Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Pavel Kotyza & Irena Benešová & Adriana Laputková, 2020. "Shaking Stability: COVID-19 Impact on the Visegrad Group Countries’ Financial Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    19. Wang, Zhixuan & Dong, Yanli & Liu, Ailan, 2022. "How does China's stock market react to supply chain disruptions from COVID-19?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Ozkan, Oktay, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:50-:d:1034318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.