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A Closer Look at the Halloween Effect: The Case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average

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  • Peter Arendas

    (Department of Banking and International Finance, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemska cesta 1, 852 35 Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Viera Malacka

    (Department of Banking and International Finance, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemska cesta 1, 852 35 Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • Maria Schwarzova

    (Department of Banking and International Finance, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava, Dolnozemska cesta 1, 852 35 Bratislava, Slovakia)

Abstract

The Halloween effect is one of the most famous calendar anomalies. It is based on the observation that stock returns tend to perform much better over the winter half of the year (November–April) than over the summer half of the year (May–October). The vast majority of studies that investigated the Halloween effect over the recent decades focused only on stock indices. This means that they evaluated whether a stock index follows the Halloween effect pattern, but they omitted digging a little deeper and analyze the Halloween effect on the individual stocks level. This paper investigates to what extent the blue-chips stocks included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are affected by the Halloween effect and whether the Halloween effect is widespread or the behavior of the whole index is driven by only a handful of stocks that are strongly affected by the Halloween effect. The results show that, although the strength of the Halloween effect varies quite rapidly from stock to stock, the vast majority of analyzed stocks experienced a notably higher average winter period than summer period returns over the 1980–2017 period. Moreover, in 18 out of 35 cases, the Halloween effect was statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Arendas & Viera Malacka & Maria Schwarzova, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Halloween Effect: The Case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:42-:d:140703
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haggard, K. Stephen & Witte, H. Douglas, 2010. "The Halloween effect: Trick or treat?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 379-387, December.
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    5. H. Douglas Witte, 2010. "Outliers and the Halloween Effect: Comment on Maberly and Pierce," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 91-98, January.
    6. Guo, Biao & Luo, Xingguo & Zhang, Ziding, 2014. "Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 362-368.
    7. Peter Arendas & Bozena Chovancova, 2016. "Central and Eastern European Share Markets and the Halloween Effect," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 12(2), pages 61-71.
    8. Dirk Swagerman & Ivan Novakovic, 2010. "Multi-National Evidence On Calendar Patterns In Stock Returns: An Empirical Case Study On Investment Strategy And The Halloween Effect," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(4), pages 23-42.
    9. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Halloween Effect in Developed Stock Markets: A US Perspective," Working Papers 201914, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Halloween Effect in developed stock markets: A historical perspective," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 130-138.
    3. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.

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