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Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Malaria Incidence: A Comparison of Two Ecological Zones in Mali

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  • François Freddy Ateba

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
    Department of Mathematics, University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), Montréal, QC H2X 3Y7, Canada)

  • Issaka Sagara

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
    Department of Public Health Education and Research, Faculty of Medicine and Odonto-Stomatology, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Nafomon Sogoba

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Mahamoudou Touré

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Drissa Konaté

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Sory Ibrahim Diawara

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Séidina Aboubacar Samba Diakité

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Ayouba Diarra

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Mamadou D. Coulibaly

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Mathias Dolo

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Amagana Dolo

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Aissata Sacko

    (Department of Public Health Education and Research, Faculty of Medicine and Odonto-Stomatology, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Sidibe M’baye Thiam

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Aliou Sissako

    (Laboratory of Applied Molecular Biology (LBMA), Science and Technologies Faculty (FST), University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Lansana Sangaré

    (Laboratory of Applied Molecular Biology (LBMA), Science and Technologies Faculty (FST), University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Mahamadou Diakité

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Ousmane A. Koita

    (Laboratory of Applied Molecular Biology (LBMA), Science and Technologies Faculty (FST), University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Mady Cissoko

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
    APHM, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, Hop Timone, BioSTIC, Biostatistic & ICT, Aix Marseille Université, 13005 Marseille, France)

  • Sékou Fantamady Traore

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Peter John Winch

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA)

  • Manuel Febrero-Bande

    (Department of Statistics, Mathematical Analysis and Optimization, University of Santiago de Compostela, 15782 Santiago de Compostela, Spain)

  • Jeffrey G. Shaffer

    (Department of Global Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America, 1440 Canal Street New Orleans, LA 70112, USA)

  • Donald J. Krogtad

    (Department of Global Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America, 1440 Canal Street New Orleans, LA 70112, USA)

  • Hannah Catherine Marker

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA)

  • Seydou Doumbia

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
    Department of Public Health Education and Research, Faculty of Medicine and Odonto-Stomatology, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali)

  • Jean Gaudart

    (Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Dentistry, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Bamako BP 1805, Mali
    APHM, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, Hop Timone, BioSTIC, Biostatistic & ICT, Aix Marseille Université, 13005 Marseille, France)

Abstract

Malaria transmission largely depends on environmental, climatic, and hydrological conditions. In Mali, malaria epidemiological patterns are nested within three ecological zones. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between those conditions and the incidence of malaria in Dangassa and Koila, Mali. Malaria data was collected through passive case detection at community health facilities of each study site from June 2015 to January 2017. Climate and environmental data were obtained over the same time period from the Goddard Earth Sciences (Giovanni) platform and hydrological data from Mali hydraulic services. A generalized additive model was used to determine the lagged time between each principal component analysis derived component and the incidence of malaria cases, and also used to analyze the relationship between malaria and the lagged components in a multivariate approach. Malaria transmission patterns were bimodal at both sites, but peak and lull periods were longer lasting for Koila study site. Temperatures were associated with malaria incidence in both sites. In Dangassa, the wind speed ( p = 0.005) and river heights ( p = 0.010) contributed to increasing malaria incidence, in contrast to Koila, where it was humidity ( p < 0.001) and vegetation ( p = 0.004). The relationships between environmental factors and malaria incidence differed between the two settings, implying different malaria dynamics and adjustments in the conception and plan of interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • François Freddy Ateba & Issaka Sagara & Nafomon Sogoba & Mahamoudou Touré & Drissa Konaté & Sory Ibrahim Diawara & Séidina Aboubacar Samba Diakité & Ayouba Diarra & Mamadou D. Coulibaly & Mathias Dolo, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Malaria Incidence: A Comparison of Two Ecological Zones in Mali," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:13:p:4698-:d:378275
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. François Freddy Ateba & Manuel Febrero-Bande & Issaka Sagara & Nafomon Sogoba & Mahamoudou Touré & Daouda Sanogo & Ayouba Diarra & Andoh Magdalene Ngitah & Peter J. Winch & Jeffrey G. Shaffer & Donald, 2020. "Predicting Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Dangassa, Mali: A Novel Approach Using Functional Generalized Additive Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-16, August.

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