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Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model

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  • Shunsuke Doi

    (Department of Healthcare and Information Management, University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
    Department of Welfare and Medical Intelligence, Chiba University Hospital, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8677, Japan)

  • Hiroo Ide

    (Department of Welfare and Medical Intelligence, Chiba University Hospital, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8677, Japan)

  • Koichi Takeuchi

    (Department of Welfare and Medical Intelligence, Chiba University Hospital, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8677, Japan)

  • Shinsuke Fujita

    (Department of Welfare and Medical Intelligence, Chiba University Hospital, 1-8-1 Inohana, Chuo-ku, Chiba 260-8677, Japan)

  • Katsuhiko Takabayashi

    (Department of Internal Medicine, Sanwa Hospital, Medical Incorporated Association Kanae-kai, 7-379 Higurashi, Matsudo, Chiba 270-2253, Japan)

Abstract

Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Shunsuke Doi & Hiroo Ide & Koichi Takeuchi & Shinsuke Fujita & Katsuhiko Takabayashi, 2017. "Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:14:y:2017:i:11:p:1367-:d:118412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Rongrong Zhuo & Mark Rosenberg & Bin Yu & Xinwei Guo & Mingjie Wang, 2021. "Accessibility of Rural Life Space on the Jianghan Plain, China: The Role of Livelihood," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-17, February.

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