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Short Term Electric Power Load Forecasting Using Principal Component Analysis and Recurrent Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Venkataramana Veeramsetty

    (Center for Artificial Intelligence and Deep Learning, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, SR University, Warangal 506371, India)

  • Dongari Rakesh Chandra

    (Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Kakatiya Institute of Technology and Science (KITS), Warangal 506015, India)

  • Francesco Grimaccia

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milan, Italy)

  • Marco Mussetta

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milan, Italy)

Abstract

Electrical load forecasting study is required in electric power systems for different applications with respect to the specific time horizon, such as optimal operations, grid stability, Demand Side Management (DSM) and long-term strategic planning. In this context, machine learning and data analytics models represent a valuable tool to cope with the intrinsic complexity and especially design future demand-side advanced services. The main novelty in this paper is that the combination of a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques is proposed to improve the forecasting capability of the hourly load on an electric power substation. A historical dataset of measured loads related to a 33/11 kV MV substation is considered in India as a case study, in order to properly validate the designed method. Based on the presented numerical results, the proposed approach proved itself to accurately predict loads with a reduced dimensionality of input data, thus minimizing the overall computational effort.

Suggested Citation

  • Venkataramana Veeramsetty & Dongari Rakesh Chandra & Francesco Grimaccia & Marco Mussetta, 2022. "Short Term Electric Power Load Forecasting Using Principal Component Analysis and Recurrent Neural Networks," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:8-164:d:732285
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pengwei Su & Xue Tian & Yan Wang & Shuai Deng & Jun Zhao & Qingsong An & Yongzhen Wang, 2017. "Recent Trends in Load Forecasting Technology for the Operation Optimization of Distributed Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Mansoor, Muhammad & Grimaccia, Francesco & Leva, Sonia & Mussetta, Marco, 2021. "Comparison of echo state network and feed-forward neural networks in electrical load forecasting for demand response programs," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 282-293.
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    Cited by:

    1. George Kandilogiannakis & Paris Mastorocostas & Athanasios Voulodimos, 2022. "ReNFuzz-LF: A Recurrent Neurofuzzy System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Mahdi Khodayar & Jacob Regan, 2023. "Deep Neural Networks in Power Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-38, June.
    3. Carla Sahori Seefoo Jarquin & Alessandro Gandelli & Francesco Grimaccia & Marco Mussetta, 2023. "Short-Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting in University Buildings by Means of Artificial Neural Networks," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Morais, Lucas Barros Scianni & Aquila, Giancarlo & de Faria, Victor Augusto Durães & Lima, Luana Medeiros Marangon & Lima, José Wanderley Marangon & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, 2023. "Short-term load forecasting using neural networks and global climate models: An application to a large-scale electrical power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    5. George Kandilogiannakis & Paris Mastorocostas & Athanasios Voulodimos & Constantinos Hilas, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of the Greek Power System Using a Dynamic Block-Diagonal Fuzzy Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, May.

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