IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v8y2015i2p1138-1153d45428.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Forecasting of PV Plant Power Output

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Dolara

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Francesco Grimaccia

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sonia Leva

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Marco Mussetta

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Emanuele Ogliari

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The main purpose of this work is to lead an assessment of the day ahead forecasting activity of the power production by photovoltaic plants. Forecasting methods can play a fundamental role in solving problems related to renewable energy source (RES) integration in smart grids. Here a new hybrid method called Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network (PHANN) based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and PV plant clear sky curves is proposed and compared with a standard ANN method. Furthermore, the accuracy of the two methods has been analyzed in order to better understand the intrinsic errors caused by the PHANN and to evaluate its potential in energy forecasting applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Dolara & Francesco Grimaccia & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta & Emanuele Ogliari, 2015. "A Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Forecasting of PV Plant Power Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:2:p:1138-1153:d:45428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/2/1138/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/2/1138/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alamsyah, T.M.I. & Sopian, K. & Shahrir, A., 2004. "Predicting average energy conversion of photovoltaic system in Malaysia using a simplified method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 403-411.
    2. Fei Wang & Zengqiang Mi & Shi Su & Hongshan Zhao, 2012. "Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo & Muñoz-Jimenez, Andrés & Falces, Alberto & Mendoza-Villena, Montserrat & Garcia-Garrido, Eduardo & Lara-Santillan, Pedro M. & Zorzano-Alba, Enrique & Zorzano-Santamaria,, 2012. "Short-term power forecasting system for photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 311-317.
    4. Chen, Serena H. & Jakeman, Anthony J. & Norton, John P., 2008. "Artificial Intelligence techniques: An introduction to their use for modelling environmental systems," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 379-400.
    5. Emanuele Ogliari & Francesco Grimaccia & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta, 2013. "Hybrid Predictive Models for Accurate Forecasting in PV Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-12, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leva, S. & Dolara, A. & Grimaccia, F. & Mussetta, M. & Ogliari, E., 2017. "Analysis and validation of 24 hours ahead neural network forecasting of photovoltaic output power," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 88-100.
    2. Honglu Zhu & Xu Li & Qiao Sun & Ling Nie & Jianxi Yao & Gang Zhao, 2015. "A Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Wavelet Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Antonello Rosato & Rosa Altilio & Rodolfo Araneo & Massimo Panella, 2017. "Prediction in Photovoltaic Power by Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Karabacak, Kerim & Cetin, Numan, 2014. "Artificial neural networks for controlling wind–PV power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 804-827.
    5. Claudio Monteiro & Tiago Santos & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte, 2013. "Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    7. Ogliari, Emanuele & Dolara, Alberto & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Leva, Sonia, 2017. "Physical and hybrid methods comparison for the day ahead PV output power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 11-21.
    8. Ümmühan Başaran Filik & Tansu Filik & Ömer Nezih Gerek, 2018. "A Hysteresis Model for Fixed and Sun Tracking Solar PV Power Generation Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Gandoman, Foad H. & Raeisi, Fatima & Ahmadi, Abdollah, 2016. "A literature review on estimating of PV-array hourly power under cloudy weather conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 579-592.
    10. Dongjun Suh & Seongju Chang, 2012. "An Energy and Water Resource Demand Estimation Model for Multi-Family Housing Complexes in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(11), pages 1-20, November.
    11. Javier López Gómez & Ana Ogando Martínez & Francisco Troncoso Pastoriza & Lara Febrero Garrido & Enrique Granada Álvarez & José Antonio Orosa García, 2020. "Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks and Numerical Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Mohanty, Sthitapragyan & Patra, Prashanta K. & Sahoo, Sudhansu S. & Mohanty, Asit, 2017. "Forecasting of solar energy with application for a growing economy like India: Survey and implication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 539-553.
    13. Vlontzos, G. & Pardalos, P.M., 2017. "Assess and prognosticate green house gas emissions from agricultural production of EU countries, by implementing, DEA Window analysis and artificial neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 155-162.
    14. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    15. Christian Janiesch & Patrick Zschech & Kai Heinrich, 2021. "Machine learning and deep learning," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 31(3), pages 685-695, September.
    16. Gong, Jian-zhou & Liu, Yan-sui & Xia, Bei-cheng & Zhao, Guan-wei, 2009. "Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting, based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3612-3620.
    17. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    18. Marzouq, Manal & El Fadili, Hakim & Zenkouar, Khalid & Lakhliai, Zakia & Amouzg, Mohammed, 2020. "Short term solar irradiance forecasting via a novel evolutionary multi-model framework and performance assessment for sites with no solar irradiance data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 214-231.
    19. Gulin, Marko & Pavlović, Tomislav & Vašak, Mario, 2016. "Photovoltaic panel and array static models for power production prediction: Integration of manufacturers’ and on-line data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 399-413.
    20. Arumugham, Dinesh Rajan & Rajendran, Parvathy, 2021. "Modelling global solar irradiance for any location on earth through regression analysis using high-resolution data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1114-1123.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:2:p:1138-1153:d:45428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.