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From Niche to Market—An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Economic Uptake of Electro-Fuels (Power-to-Fuel) in the German Energy System

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Schnuelle

    (Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

  • Kasper Kisjes

    (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, 9712 TS Groningen, The Netherlands)

  • Torben Stuehrmann

    (Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

  • Pablo Thier

    (Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

  • Igor Nikolic

    (Department of Multi-Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands)

  • Arnim von Gleich

    (Department of Technology Development and Design, University of Bremen, Badgasteiner Str. 1, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

  • Stefan Goessling-Reisemann

    (Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

Abstract

The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO 2 -certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schnuelle & Kasper Kisjes & Torben Stuehrmann & Pablo Thier & Igor Nikolic & Arnim von Gleich & Stefan Goessling-Reisemann, 2020. "From Niche to Market—An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Economic Uptake of Electro-Fuels (Power-to-Fuel) in the German Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:20:p:5522-:d:432422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. König, Daniel H. & Baucks, Nadine & Dietrich, Ralph-Uwe & Wörner, Antje, 2015. "Simulation and evaluation of a process concept for the generation of synthetic fuel from CO2 and H2," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 833-841.
    2. Graves, Christopher & Ebbesen, Sune D. & Mogensen, Mogens & Lackner, Klaus S., 2011. "Sustainable hydrocarbon fuels by recycling CO2 and H2O with renewable or nuclear energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Manfred Sargl & Andreas Wolfsteiner & Günter Wittmann, 2011. "Neue Weltklimaordnung: Emissionshandel zwischen Staaten mit schrittweiser Klimagerechtigkeit," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 91(10), pages 704-711, October.
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    1. Ralf Peters & Maximilian Decker & Janos Lucian Breuer & Remzi Can Samsun & Detlef Stolten, 2024. "Ramping-Up Electro-Fuel Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-47, April.
    2. Ruiqiu Yao & Yukun Hu & Liz Varga, 2023. "Applications of Agent-Based Methods in Multi-Energy Systems—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-36, March.
    3. Pashchenko, Dmitry, 2023. "Hydrogen-rich gas as a fuel for the gas turbines: A pathway to lower CO2 emission," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Mendoza, Joan Manuel F. & Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro & Velenturf, Anne P.M. & Jensen, Paul D. & Ibarra, Dorleta, 2022. "Circular economy business models and technology management strategies in the wind industry: Sustainability potential, industrial challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Georg Holtz & Christian Schnülle & Malcolm Yadack & Jonas Friege & Thorben Jensen & Pablo Thier & Peter Viebahn & Émile J. L. Chappin, 2020. "Using Agent-Based Models to Generate Transformation Knowledge for the German Energiewende—Potentials and Challenges Derived from Four Case Studies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-26, November.

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