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Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression †

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory D. Merkel

    (Opus College of Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233, USA)

  • Richard J. Povinelli

    (Opus College of Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233, USA)

  • Ronald H. Brown

    (Opus College of Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233, USA)

Abstract

Deep neural networks are proposed for short-term natural gas load forecasting. Deep learning has proven to be a powerful tool for many classification problems seeing significant use in machine learning fields such as image recognition and speech processing. We provide an overview of natural gas forecasting. Next, the deep learning method, contrastive divergence is explained. We compare our proposed deep neural network method to a linear regression model and a traditional artificial neural network on 62 operating areas, each of which has at least 10 years of data. The proposed deep network outperforms traditional artificial neural networks by 9.83% weighted mean absolute percent error ( WMAPE ).

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory D. Merkel & Richard J. Povinelli & Ronald H. Brown, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:8:p:2008-:d:161451
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Magnus Dahl & Adam Brun & Oliver S. Kirsebom & Gorm B. Andresen, 2018. "Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Chengdong Li & Zixiang Ding & Jianqiang Yi & Yisheng Lv & Guiqing Zhang, 2018. "Deep Belief Network Based Hybrid Model for Building Energy Consumption Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bartłomiej Gaweł & Andrzej Paliński, 2021. "Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting Based on Analog Method and Fuzzy Decision Tree," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-26, August.
    2. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou & Katarzyna Poczeta & Dionysis Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Forecasting of Day-Ahead Natural Gas Consumption Demand in Greece Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-32, May.
    3. Xiaoyu Zhang & Zhe Shu & Rui Wang & Tao Zhang & Yabing Zha, 2018. "Short-Term Load Interval Prediction Using a Deep Belief Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Athanasios Anagnostis & Elpiniki Papageorgiou & Dionysis Bochtis, 2020. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-29, August.
    5. Lintao Yang & Honggeng Yang, 2019. "Analysis of Different Neural Networks and a New Architecture for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, April.
    6. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Seon Hyeog Kim & Gyul Lee & Gu-Young Kwon & Do-In Kim & Yong-June Shin, 2018. "Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Peng Liu & Peijun Zheng & Ziyu Chen, 2019. "Deep Learning with Stacked Denoising Auto-Encoder for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Ivan Lorencin & Nikola Anđelić & Vedran Mrzljak & Zlatan Car, 2019. "Genetic Algorithm Approach to Design of Multi-Layer Perceptron for Combined Cycle Power Plant Electrical Power Output Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-26, November.
    11. Cui, Jia & Yu, Renzhe & Zhao, Dongbo & Yang, Junyou & Ge, Weichun & Zhou, Xiaoming, 2019. "Intelligent load pattern modeling and denoising using improved variational mode decomposition for various calendar periods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 480-491.
    12. Moting Su & Zongyi Zhang & Ye Zhu & Donglan Zha, 2019. "Data-Driven Natural Gas Spot Price Forecasting with Least Squares Regression Boosting Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-13, March.
    13. Uday K. Chakraborty, 2019. "Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Stack Design Optimization Using an Improved Jaya Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-26, August.

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